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HomeHorse RacingNoel’s Weekend Winners: Backing a 20-1 Longshot in Kentucky Derby 150

Noel’s Weekend Winners: Backing a 20-1 Longshot in Kentucky Derby 150

Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend finest bets and spot performs from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Examine again each week for a few highlighted alternatives designed that can assist you money a couple of bets and make some cash.

Noel’s alternatives have been featured nearly in every single place horse racing picks may be discovered, together with in print within the Day by day Racing Type, The HorsePlayer Journal and American Turf Month-to-month, on-line at, and, from the paddock on-track at Arlington Worldwide Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Further, NYRA’s SatuTalking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Lengthy Island Cablevision.

Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners is delivered to you by, the official on-line qualifying website of the Breeders’ Cup Betting Problem (BCBC) and Nationwide Horseplayers Championship (NHC). gives low-cost feeders on daily basis and BCBC and NHC qualifiers each weekend, and it’s the one website the place you’ll be able to qualify for the $1.25 million BCBC. It’s free to enroll – click on right here to get details about registering and tips on how to enter contests.

Six Newbie Betting Instruments

  1. Begin easy with an straightforward information for tips on how to guess on horse racing.
  2. Undecided what that phrase means? Horse racing terminology is a language of its personal. Enable us translate for you
  3. What the heck is a velocity determine? This newbie’s information to hurry figures has every thing you want to know.
  4. Betting on horse racing may be intimidating. Staff ABR put collectively some Dos and Don’ts for the brand new fan getting began betting on racing.
  5. All of us make errors relating to betting on horse racing, listed here are eight classes discovered from expertise.
  6. Determine how a lot every guess will value prematurely with our Playing Calculator, introduced by NYRA Bets.

The 2024 Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve is lastly right here, and the race itself and all the Could 4 undercard will comprise a few of the finest racing and wagering horse racing has to supply. Horseplayers have been ready for months for the Derby, and the run for the roses would be the centerpiece of a 14-race program at Churchill Downs that can embody eight different stakes races. Together with the Kentucky Derby, this weekend’s winners will embody a more in-depth have a look at one of many day’s different Grade 1 races, the $1 million Churchill Downs Stakes Offered by Ford, which has the potential to yield an upset and a few big-priced payoffs that might function a bankroll builder for the Derby. I want you an exhilarating Kentucky Derby Day. Better of luck!

Saturday, Could 4

Churchill Downs, Race 10, $1,000,000 Churchill Downs Stakes Offered by Ford, submit time 4:31 p.m. ET

The Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes has drawn an 11-horse discipline set to race seven furlongs on the primary observe for a million-dollar purse. The sector is loaded with high quality and ought to be an awesome betting race, and a few of the most high-profile challengers within the discipline look like weak. This units up the potential for an upset. For instance, the morning-line favourite #6 Zozos is coming back from a layoff and will probably be competing at a distance shorter than his finest, and second selection #11 Hoist the Gold, who gained final fall’s Grade 2 Cigar Mile Handicap, is making his first begin since coming back from the Center East. As a substitute of taking a brief value, why not guess some horses at good odds as a substitute? One potential upsetter is #3 Bo Cruz, who exits a giant win in Keeneland’s Grade 3 Commonwealth Stakes held at seven furlongs, the place he prevailed regardless of having to battle for the lead. That cutback in distance appeared to work wonders for Bo Cruz who had been struggling in two-turn races. Moreover his win within the Commonwealth, Bo Cruz’s different high profession effort was an allowance win at Churchill Downs on final yr’s Kentucky Derby undercard. Together with Bo Cruz, a case may also be made on this spot for fellow longshot #1 Elevate Cain, who can also be well-suited for this distance and in addition would love an off-track primarily based on his win within the 2023 Gotham Stakes within the slop at Aqueduct. Elevate Cain gained Keeneland’s Perryville Stakes final fall and will probably be seeking to rebound from a subpar outing final day trip within the Commonwealth Stakes when he appeared to wish the race off a layoff. Lastly, #2 Tejano Twist is a horse tough to disregard on this spot even if seven furlongs is a furlong additional than his most well-liked distance. Tejano Twist will get Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard, owns a stakes win over this observe, and eventually will get away from Skelly, maybe the most effective sprinter within the nation proper now, who beat him in two of his final three races.

The Play: Guess to win on #3 Bo Cruz (10-1). Play three-horse exacta and trifecta containers together with #1 Elevate Cain (20-1) and #2 Tejano Twist (4-1).

Churchill Downs, Race 12, $5,000,000 Kentucky Derby Offered by Woodford Reserve, submit time 6:57 p.m. ET

The Kentucky Derby is the race everyone seems to be ready for. A discipline of 20 is ready to run for the roses at a distance of 1 ¼ miles and at the very least half the horses within the race are authentic contenders. Inside posts have a brutally unhealthy document within the Derby relationship again 40 years, and due to this fact it’s recommendable to toss out each #1 Dornoch and #2 Sierra Leone. The latter is a more in-depth prone to discover himself buried on the rail inside and/or behind 19 rivals within the early operating. Good luck from there. Dornoch, in the meantime, might want to ship laborious from the kiss-of-death rail submit, not solely lessening his possibilities of going all the way in which but in addition guaranteeing a quick tempo and hurting the possibilities of fellow early velocity horses like #12 Monitor Phantom and the morning-favorite, #17 Fierceness. The Derby tempo is normally too quick anyway, and this yr’s race definitely seems to be like no exception. Fierceness is a must-use within the exotics, however he’s not an awesome play to win at anticipated low odds. Let’s focus our seek for a winner on late-running horses with barely higher submit positions than Sierra Leone and at significantly better costs. Initially, that horse was going to be Grade 2 Louisiana Derby winner #4 Catching Freedom, who reveals a extremely fascinating enhancing sample in each profession race for coach Brad Cox. Sadly, his submit draw is just marginally higher than Sierra Leone’s. The opposite excellent set-up nearer on this race with a greater submit is #7 Honor Marie, and as a 20-1 longshot on the morning line, he’s going to be my boom-or-bust high decide to catch Fierceness within the late levels for the Kentucky Derby victory. Honor Marie was a graded stakes winner at Churchill Downs as a 2-year-old, however then he wanted a race when fifth in his 3-year-old debut within the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Honest Grounds. The Risen Star became this prep season’s final key race (winner Sierra Leone gained the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, third-place Catching Freedom gained the Louisiana Derby, and fourth-place #19 Resilience gained the Wooden Memorial Stakes Offered by Resorts World On line casino). Honor Marie took one other step ahead when second by a size within the Louisiana Derby final time. Now he is able to take the most important step ahead of all to grow to be the upset winner of the 150th Kentucky Derby.

The Play:  Guess #7 Honor Marie (20-1) to win and field him within the exacta and trifecta with #4 Catching Freedom (8-1), #17 Fierceness (5-2), and #19 Resilience (20-1).



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