Most years, I like to have a look by way of all the playing cards for the Longines Kentucky Oaks on Friday and the Kentucky Derby Introduced by Woodford Reserve on Saturday for worth bets and stay longshots. The 2 function races alone this 12 months, nevertheless, function so many intriguing double-digit longshots that I made a decision to make them the main focus and dig deeper into the worth available within the $1.5 million Oaks and $5 million Derby.
Friday, Might 3, Churchill Downs, $1.5 million Longines Kentucky Oaks, 5:51 p.m. ET
My preliminary view of the 2024 Kentucky Oaks was that it was fairly wide-open and might be anybody’s race. That perspective stands … supplied the climate complies and the primary monitor is quick on Oaks day. The forecast signifies that is perhaps unlikely to occur with rain on Oaks day with scattered thunderstorms within the forecast for each Friday and Derby day on Saturday. If the Oaks is held on an “off” monitor on Friday – which means good, muddy, sloppy, wet-fast, sealed, and many others. – due to rain, favorites #8 Tarifa (7-2), #13 Simply F Y I (9-2), and #14 Leslie’s Rose (4-1) can be formidable. All have posted wins on “off” tracks and boast very sturdy Tomlinson numbers, which Day by day Racing Type makes use of to make an informed guess how racehorses will deal with moist tracks based mostly on efficiency of the horse’s sire and broodmare sire’s progeny on “off” tracks.
Factoring climate into the equation, let’s take a fast have a look at all the Oaks entrants at 10-1 odds or larger on the morning line in quest of worth by way of betting the race. For this train, I additionally didn’t take into account #5 Thorpedo Anna (5-1) and #11 Methods and Means (5-1) because of the odds.
1. Tapit Jenallie (30-1): She may transfer up a bit with an “off” monitor, however she was 7 ¼ lengths behind Thorpedo Anna within the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes and doesn’t look quick sufficient.
2. Gin Gin: (30-1): One other who will get a slight increase with a moist monitor … and one other who doesn’t seem like quick sufficient on paper to be an actual risk.
3. The place’s My Ring (15-1): The place do I join 15-1 on an enhancing 3-year-old filly coming off a dominant 4 ¼-length win at this distance within the Gazelle Stakes? Depend me in! (Word: my enthusiasm can be tempered a bit on a moist monitor.)
4. Regulatory Danger (20-1): The Gazelle runner-up is perhaps an underlay due to the high-profile trainer-jockey tandem of Chad Brown and Jose Ortiz. Eligible to run nicely however I a lot desire the Gazelle winner (see above).
6. Lemon Muffin (30-1): Sq. worth on the Honeybee Stakes winner when you can forgive a dud within the Fantasy Stakes, crushed 10 ¾ lengths, in her most up-to-date begin. Two rallying seconds at Churchill as a 2-year-old a motive for optimism.
7. Fiona’s Magic (30-1): Was first or second in every of her first 5 races earlier than she was distanced (crushed by 40 or extra lengths) within the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks Introduced by FanDuel TV. Coach Bo Yates stated the post-race scope introduced up a ton of mucous, indicating she was sick. Appears way more interesting when you draw a line by way of that race.
9. Everland (30-1): Has by no means raced on dust, so she’s a real wild card. Her 447 Tomlinson score for a moist monitor is the very best of the 14 entrants and two also-eligibles, so she is perhaps value utilizing if it rains.
10. Into Champagne (30-1): She one other who seems extra playable on a moist monitor with a stakes win on a sloppy important monitor and the second-highest Tomlinson score (445) for a moist floor. On a dry (quick) important monitor, I a lot desire others.
12. Energy Squeeze (12-1): I doubt the morning-line odds will maintain for a filly who has gained 4 straight, together with three stakes wins this 12 months. Completely ok to win and quick sufficient to work out an excellent journey.
15. Our Fairly Lady (15-1): She is on the also-eligible checklist and desires one defection to attract into the race. If she does, Our Fairly Lady is my finest guess of the day Might 3 at Churchill. She has nice pace and is a risk to guide from begin to end coming off a second to Tarifa within the Truthful Grounds Oaks Introduced by Fasig-Tipton. She’s additionally improved in every of her three begins for Corridor of Fame coach Steve Asmussen and is 2-for-2 on a moist monitor.
16. Candied (20-1): One other who can be a critical participant ought to she get two defections and draw into the race. She ran fourth within the Grade 1 Central Financial institution Ashland Stakes in her first begin in six months and may enhance if she attracts into the race. A moist monitor shouldn’t be a problem.
Prime longshot: Our Fairly Lady
Different legit longshot win candidates (so as of choice): The place’s My Ring, Energy Squeeze, Candied
Bombs away for exactas/trifectas: Fiona’s Magic, Lemon Muffin
Saturday, Might 4, Churchill Downs, $5 million Kentucky Derby Introduced by Woodford Reserve, 6:57 p.m. ET
For evaluating the Kentucky Derby longshots, let’s shift the goalposts to entrants with odds of 15-1 or larger on the morning line. That eliminates from this dialogue morning-line favourite #17 Fierceness (5-2), Toyota Blue Grass Stakes winner #2 Sierra Leone (3-1), Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby winner #4 Catching Freedom (8-1), Blue Grass Stakes runner-up #8 Only a Contact (10-1), and UAE Derby Introduced by Atlantis The Royal winner #11 Endlessly Younger (10-1).
The great thing about the Kentucky Derby as a betting race is that you’ve the chance to guess enhancing runners, typically coming off a career-best race, at huge odds, so please don’t let me speak you out of a longshot you want. Handicappers and bettors all worth various things and within the Derby, you possibly can be richly rewarded for a contrarian opinion.
Rain is also a risk, in order that is part of the equation, though Bob Ehalt supplied extra element on which runners would profit from an “off” (moist) monitor in a separate weblog submit. So with out additional ado, let’s check out the longshot contenders for the 2024 Kentucky Derby.
1. Dornoch (20-1): The complete-sibling to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage has run nicely in two tries on “off” tracks, together with a win over morning-line second selection Sierra Leone within the 2023 Remsen Stakes. The within submit in a 20-horse discipline was a brutal draw and he enters the Derby off the worst begin of his profession, so I’m trying elsewhere.
3. Mystik Dan (20-1): He’d in all probability profit as a lot as any of the Derby entrants if the monitor got here up moist on Saturday. I didn’t like his Arkansas Derby third-place end, however he romped on a muddy monitor with an enormous pace determine within the Southwest Stakes. Price a play if the rain comes.
5. Catalytic (30-1): Has solely a maiden win to his credit score in three begins. Selecting up jockey Jose Ortiz helps and he has tactical pace, however take into account me skeptical he’s prepared for this problem.
6. Simply Metal (20-1): Primarily based on pace figures, he jumps off the web page as a candidate to outrun his odds for Corridor of Fame coach D. Wayne Lukas. I plan to make use of the Arkansas Derby runner-up fairly closely in my unique bets.
7. Honor Marie (20-1): He appears to be the “buzz” horse on the Kentucky Derby backstretch, so he’s coaching nicely and there’s a good probability his odds come down a bit. He’s coming off a high quality second to morning-line second selection Sierra Leone, crushed solely a size, and presents way more interesting odds. Additionally owns two wins and a second in three begins at Churchill. A win candidate and a should use in exotics for me … except it rains.
9. Encino (20-1): A winner of three straight, together with a front-running win within the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes that allowed him to qualify by way of the again door for the Kentucky Derby. I’m a giant fan of this 3-year-old and he’s enhancing, nevertheless it’s a tricky spot on three weeks of relaxation.
10. T O Password (30-1): He’s 2-for-2 in Japan however he was all out to hold on going about 1 1/8 miles within the Fukuryu Stakes towards a lot lesser competitors than what he’ll face right here in his third profession begin. I a lot desire his more-experienced countrymate Endlessly Younger’s possibilities to win the Derby.
12 Observe Phantom (20-1): Together with his pace and a few seconds on “off” tracks, he’d transfer up a bit if it rains on Derby day. He’s quick sufficient to be within the hunt within the stretch, however he pale late in his final begin at 1 3/16 miles and it’s powerful to check that altering going farther right here.
13. West Saratoga (30-1): He’s a sport colt and an incredible story, however I simply don’t assume he’s quick sufficient to be a critical risk.
14. Endlessly (30-1): One of many extra proficient 3-year-olds within the discipline with 5 wins in six begins, however he’s by no means run on dust and his coach appeared to desire racing him on grass Derby weekend slightly than the primary jewel of the Triple Crown.
15. Home Product (30-1): My hunch is he can be flying late after he was, by a major margin, the quickest finisher of his ultimate three furlongs and final eighth of a mile in his ultimate prep race. Try our Derby Information weblog for extra particulars. Love his possibilities to boost the exacta or trifecta at massive odds. Rain would dampen my enthusiasm.
16. Grand Mo the First (50-1): His third by a neck within the Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby presents some motive for optimism, however he was 16 lengths behind Fierceness and a pair of ½ lengths behind runner-up Catalytic within the Curlin Florida Derby Introduced by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa. Not for me.
18. Stronghold (20-1): Enters off back-to-back wins within the Sunland Park Derby and Santa Anita Derby, so 20-1 on the morning line is a terrific worth. He’s a fighter with tactical pace however I didn’t love how slowly they completed within the Santa Anita Derby. Give him an extended look if it rains as his Tomlinson (422) for a moist monitor signifies he’d relish an “off” floor.
19. Resilience (20-1): Would have most popular a greater submit place, however he has the pace to get first rate early place and took a pleasant step ahead with the addition of blinkers within the Wooden Memorial Stakes Introduced by Resorts World On line casino. He’ll have to take one other massive step by way of pace figures, however this well-bred colt is a win risk for Corridor of Fame coach Invoice Mott.
20. Society Man (50-1): Including elite jockey Frankie Dettori, among the finest ever at his craft, provides to the attraction, however the post-position draw did him no favors. He’s enhancing however I’m undecided he’s quick sufficient.
21. Epic Trip (30-1): Has tactical pace and has by no means been worse than third in 5 begins. Powerful to see the Blue Grass third-place finisher making up 5 ¼ lengths on Sierra Leone ought to he draw into the race with one defection, however he may a minimum of be within the combine close to the highest of the stretch.
22. Mugatu (30-1): Unplaced in three tries towards stakes competitors and unplaced in three begins on dust important tracks. He additionally wants two defections to get in. Powerful to make a compelling case for him.
Prime longshot: Honor Marie
Legit longshot win candidate: Resilience
Bomb’s away for exactas/trifectas: Simply Metal, Home Product
