Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 6/10/24

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: Let’s simply dive proper in

Scratch: What main change to baseball may have taken place 50 years from now that we aren’t even speaking about as a risk proper now (e.g. robo umps, and so forth)?

Ben Clemens: Variety of fielders, possibly? Assuming there’s nonetheless baseball, after all

Visitor: Who would you reasonably wager on panning out?  A prospect who must decrease his Okay charge by 5-10% or a prospect who must decrease his GB charge by 5-10%?

Ben Clemens: It depends upon different elements. If we’re speaking a prospect removed from the majors, like A ball, I’d undoubtedly choose the man who hits too many grounders. Research after examine reveals that hitters who’re hanging out a ton within the low minors simply can’t play on the main league stage basically

Ben Clemens: The nearer you get to the majors, the extra I’m within the one with the upper strikeout charge. However actually, it’s a type of questions the place ‘all else being equal’ depends upon what stage all else is equal at

Mike: If London got here to MLB and mentioned “Now we have an possession group able to pay billions for an enlargement workforce AND town is keen to spring for for a brand new stadium,” would the league go for it?

Ben Clemens: surprisingly, I don’t assume so

Ben Clemens: I simply assume the journey could be too onerous

Ben Clemens: They clearly perceive how robust it’s the means they schedule off days and such round journey and ensure to solely play brief collection. However I simply can’t think about a 6-hour minimal flight for each collection could possibly be labored into the schedule with out extra groups in Europe forming one other division of some sort

Ben Clemens: So for me, it’s far more about promoting the sport to promote TV broadcasts than about truly placing a workforce there completely

Teaberry: Appears secure to imagine the Phillies are a playoff workforce this yr.  What outfield are they rolling out for his or her first playoff recreation vs a proper handed pitcher?

Ben Clemens: I assume I’m assuming everybody’s wholesome. So Marsh, Rojas, Dahl

Ben Clemens: I can’t think about Castellanos within the area given how he’s enjoying

Ben Clemens: I do know that they’re speaking about enjoying Sosa within the outfield too at occasions, so possibly you possibly can have him over Dahl or Rojas?

Braves: What do you assume is inflicting the Braves’ YOY residence run decline? Their barrel charge/laborious hit remains to be wonderful however they’re solely 14th in HR to FB. Does a few of this stage out or is there one thing systemic?

Ben Clemens: I feel a few of it’s gonna stage out, although a few of it’s that they had been unsustainably sizzling final yr

Ben Clemens: additionally it doesn’t assist that Acuna is out for the yr

Brian: Have you ever seen information about how heavy-sellers carry out after the deadline in comparison with earlier than? I feel we overstate the influence just a few subtractions will make over two months of play. Anecdotally I can consider a number of groups who offered however performed higher afterwards – as a result of regression and variance have an even bigger influence than particular person gamers.

Ben Clemens: So, this isn’t fairly the identical factor:

Ben Clemens: However I appeared into how groups who’re out of the playoff race carry out, they usually carry out worse than you’d count on based mostly on a Depth Charts rendering of their talent stage

Brian: How would you assume a Gunnar extension would evaluate to Witt’s or Riley’s?

Ben Clemens: I feel it’d be fairly related, however i havent’ carried out a deep dive to get extra exact than that

Visitor: Bichette, Guerrero, Verlander, Bregman, Bassitt, Jimenez, Robert, and so forth.–may this be essentially the most star energy we see traded on the deadline in latest reminiscence?

Ben Clemens: Effectively, if all of those guys go (and sorry Chris Bassitt, however even should you don’t), sure

Ben Clemens: significantly Robert, Bichette, Bregman

Ben Clemens: We’re not too far faraway from Juan Soto getting traded, and he’s an even bigger star than anybody listed her

Ben Clemens: but when all these guys went, positive

Ben Clemens: I do assume that the Jays are gonna have so much to say about how the commerce deadline goes

Ben Clemens: and the White Sox possibly too? The rumor is that they’re asking for a bundle larger than what WAS bought for Soto in the event that they commerce Robert, which in my view makes him unlikely to get dealt in any respect

Ben Clemens: however I can see why. 3.5 years of him sounds wonderful

Ben Clemens: Alternatively…. he’s by no means hit 600 PA in a season, by no means hit 130 wRC+ in a full season, and since his debut he has 12 WAR to Soto’s 23

Ben Clemens: So it’s undoubtedly a longshot {that a} workforce would supply that a lot

Derek: How has David Fry not but earned an on a regular basis position?

Ben Clemens: I’d argue that he virtually has, simply that his on a regular basis position is ‘wherever another person has a relaxation’

Ben Clemens: should you take a look at his previous couple of weeks, he’s playign some mixture of left and catcher, with the very occasional DH, however the one individuals getting meaningfully extra PT are Ramirez and Josh Naylor

Ben Clemens: he’s getting the identical PT as dudes I’d name regulars like Freeman, Kwan, Gimenez, Brennan

Ben Clemens: it’s simply cut up all over

Insert Witty Identify Right here: Just a few chats in the past somebody requested what different sports activities you get pleasure from watching, and also you mentioned, IIRC, tennis due to the drama between two people for 4 hours. I watched a variety of Roland Garros these final two weeks and agree. My query is, should you may watch a pitcher/hitter match up as if it had been a tennis match, that means one pitcher and one hitter for 100 pitches (specifics will be mentioned later), who would you wish to see? My vote: DeGrom v Bonds which appears chalky.

Ben Clemens: Oh man, what a match yesterday

Ben Clemens: I missed the ladies’s last, but it surely seems that was positive b/c Swiatek is simply too good

Ben Clemens: however the males’s last was nice

Ben Clemens: deGrom is half of mine for positive

Ben Clemens: Bonds is fairly thrilling as a foil

Ben Clemens: I by no means bought to see Willie Mays play so he’s in all probability my decide although

Ben Clemens: or possibly you do one per period

Ben Clemens: think about Koufax/Mays on one channel, Maddux/Bonds on one other, deGrom/Soto on a 3rd

Nick Gonzales: Am I on a sizzling streak or have I figured some issues out?

Ben Clemens: por que no los dos?

Ben Clemens: I’m ceaselessly gonna be a Gonzales truther b/c the primary school baseball mannequin I ever made thought he was the most effective hitter in a era (sure, my park elements might need been off)

Ben Clemens: I feel that he’s on an unsustainable contact sizzling streak, however that his method of elevating to maximise his contact is gonna work nice

Ben Clemens: and that there’s room for him to enhance his chase charge slightly, which makes me assume a tailwind in walks and favorable counts may offset a babip slide

Nate: Unbelievable enhancements to the participant pages – move alongside the reward to the remainder of the employees!

Ben Clemens: I’ve allow them to know

Ben Clemens: and yeah it’s nice!

Princess Leia: assist us Obi-Wan Clemonobi, you’re our solely hope!

Effectively, aside from Aaron Decide… I traded Berrios and M. Harris for him when he was nonetheless in that stoop.

Jeremy: Looks like groups which are successful typically persist with replacement-level veterans for a very long time. I’m pondering of Nick Castellanos on the Phillies as an illustration, or Martin Maldonado with the Astros. Ought to successful groups be faster to chop bait on replacement-level veterans? Or would the marginal acquire in not-especially-valuable wins not be well worth the potential clubhouse disruption?

Ben Clemens: This can be a actually laborious query

Ben Clemens: I feel that basically groups would in all probability be higher off in the event that they moved on sooner than they really do, however much less rapidly than followers assume they need to

Ben Clemens: The explanation for that’s {that a} false optimistic right here hurts extra

Ben Clemens: like, transferring somebody after they weren’t truly cooked

MagicOriole: Is Mike Elias the most effective GM in MLB? If not, who’s?

Ben Clemens: I’ve to provide it to Alex Anthopoulos

Ben Clemens: I imply, full respect to Elias

Ben Clemens: I’ve written a TON about O’s choice making previously two years becuase they’ve had a variety of attention-grabbing choices

Ben Clemens: and whereas Elias and co in all probability began out as being slightly too conservative, long-term-focused, and unwilling to ever commerce prospects to enhance, they’ve come round admirably

Ben Clemens: clearly, their dev/acquisition workforce is unbelievable as effectively

Ben Clemens: so I’ve him charging up the rankings. However it’s simply laborious to knock what the Braves maintain doing

Visitor: Why wouldn’t there be baseball in 50 years?

Ben Clemens: I imply, I don’t have a selected reply, however 50 years is a very long time

Tigers fan: Tatis Jr. has been trying higher recently…do you assume he ever will get again to 2021 kind?

Ben Clemens: I feel it’s undoubtedly doable

Ben Clemens: the man is only a spectacular athlete

Ben Clemens: i don’t assume he’s able to these energy numbers, as a result of I don’t assume anybody is able to these energy numbers on a projected foundation

Ben Clemens: however by way of being a dynamic hitter with a 150-area wRC+ and wonderful protection/baserunning to associate with it, sure

Smiling Politely: Is it sensible to presume that Alonso could be satisfactory in a nook OF and due to this fact have much more TV to contenders?

Ben Clemens: I hate to say it, however no

Ben Clemens: I don’t purchase that he may deal with a nook outfield spot

Ben Clemens: a)it’d need to be left, b)I nonetheless assume it’d be Hoskins-esque

Visitor: What do you assume has been the most effective free agent contract of greater than 100 million?  Scherzer with the Nats and Holliday with the Cardinals come to thoughts, however I’m positive I’m forgetting some good candidates.

Ben Clemens: these two are up there. Gerrit Cole is unquestionably within the operating. A Rod and Harper are good ones

Ben Clemens: I’m trying by a listing proper now

Ben Clemens: eh, there are a bunch! however Scherzer in all probability will get my vote for the general greatest

TPham: Inform Jay Jaffe I heard what he mentioned about me final week. I’ll be in his chat tomorrow.

Ben Clemens:

Shota Imanaga: SHOTA.  IMANAGA.

Phil: If gamers underneath 5’7″ bought an additional strike, would Altuve be the most effective participant in baseball?

M’s Fan: Are hitters who crush off pace and breaking balls gonna change into extra invaluable because the league strikes to fewer fastballs?

Ben Clemens: Just a little. However I feel pitchers will even transfer to throw these guys extra fastballs, principally simply specialize extra

Ben Clemens: so their major edge can be that pitchers work on their fastballs much less

bosoxforlife: Who’s going to win the Garrett Crochet sweepstakes and the way a lot of an overpay is it going to take?

Ben Clemens: I feel the O’s will find yourself successful it, truly, and that it’ll take two good Triple-A hitters

Colton: I didn’t make a mannequin for it, however I additionally thought Nick Gonzales was going to be the most effective hitter in a era out of school as effectively haha

Ben Clemens: I imply his stats had been so outrageous that even if you modify for the truth that he was hitting on the moon, they had been nonetheless otherworldly

bosoxforlife: Willie’s line vs. Koufax. .278/.426/.536 with 5 HR’s in 97 AB’s.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, don’t inform me you wouldn’t wish to watch this

Visitor: Crochet has already surpassed his profession excessive for innings in a yr, together with all his time in school.  Would that meaningfully cut back his commerce worth for a contender trying to purchase him this yr?

Jon Lester: I feel my $155 mil contract turned out fairly effectively….

Jeremy: Re: greatest free agent contracts for >$100 million, Wheeler. Harper additionally trying good to date.

Visitor: Greatest contract: Zack Wheeler with the Phillies?

SpicieBoy: Lmao chat title says that is the Ben Clemens Fangrpahs Chat

Ben Clemens: boy, I truly don’t know if I can repair that

Visitor: So, Ben… are you continue to frightened about Jose Ramirez?

Ben Clemens: as an alternative, i’m again to my article about how he’s a marvel

Visitor: Skubal and Suarez are leaders for the Cy Younger awards proper now; who has the most effective probability to dethrone certainly one of them?

Ben Clemens: Wheeler, Imanaga, Sale, Burnes, Glasnow, Gil maybe?

Ben Clemens: somebody may get sizzling within the second half and run away with it, even somebody I didn’t title

Nic: So Aaron Decide…. how is that this doable? After 2022 I feel all of us, pretty, thought he would by no means do something like that (200 > WRC+)  once more. And but, right here he’s. Is he actually this stage of hitter? Is he the most effective since Bonds?

Ben Clemens: So, I’m doing a undertaking for tomorrow the place I graph totally different hitters’ squared up charges by launch angle

Ben Clemens: as in, do you sq. up your grounders greater than your fly balls, are you constant throughout the board, and so forth.

Ben Clemens: Decide’s graph is simply ludicrous

Ben Clemens: it’s simply all squared up quick swings within the air

Ben Clemens: what a monswer

KM: Do you assume Jordan Walker ever reaches his 80 recreation energy grade? He’s solely 22 but it surely simply looks like he can by no means elevate the ball.

Ben Clemens: nah, I don’t. I do actually assume he has 80 uncooked although

Visitor: I’ve been fascinated with your article on buying and selling newly good relievers for prospects and the way it’s unrealistic for followers to count on a lot from them. I imply I’m positive there are all the time counterexamples for articles like that however I really feel just like the Effross commerce in 2022 reveals that high-quality prospects can be found even for relievers with out a lot expertise

Effross had <60 profession MLB innings when traded and the Cubs bought the Hayden Wesneski, the Yankees #7 prospect who was enjoying effectively within the excessive minors (and the Yankees had a variety of good prospects on the time)

Is that this simply an exception or is Wesneski beneath the caliber of prospects you had been contemplating?

Additionally in all probability value noting that this commerce has gone terribly for the Yankees so might dissuade related conduct from different groups

Ben Clemens: Wesneski was undoubtedly beneath the caliber of prospects I’m speaking about, by our rankings, on the time

Ben Clemens: I’m trying over the commerce roundup I wrote for that transaction

Ben Clemens: We had Wesneski at a 40+, and Seventeenth-best prospect within the NY system

Ben Clemens: so like, possibly I’m utilizing the mistaken prospect grades? However I feel that groups definitely discounted Yankee arms who out of the blue gained velo after being drafted

Champdo: It doesn’t make sense for the Tigers to commerce Skubal proper?

Ben Clemens: I don’t assume so

Ben Clemens: When are you planning on being good should you maintain buying and selling your good gamers?

I would like my child again child again child again: if the jays find yourself truly buying and selling Vlad, which groups are the highest touchdown spots? mariners? Attempting to determine who in competition wants a 1B/DH…is his getting a run at 3B an try to extend the marketplace for groups needing a 3B improve?

Ben Clemens: I undoubtedly assume that they’re enjoying him at third to widen his potential touchdown spots. However I don’t assume an enormous deal is gonna get carried out, as a result of he’s Vlad Freaking Guerrero however 1b bats are simply not that invaluable on the deadline

Ben Clemens: so there’s this bizarre scenario the place a commerce that values Vlad ‘pretty’ could be very unpopular in Toronto, each within the clubhouse and for followers

bosoxforlife: If Chris Sale continues to carry out on the stage he has then he ought to lastly get the Cy Younger as a sort of lifetime achievement award.

Ben Clemens: I agree with this. I erroneously assign a Cy Younger to Sale in my head on a regular basis

Ben Clemens: it’s loopy that he by no means gained it

New Yanks velo: Why do/did groups low cost new velo from Yanks prospects? Can’t they maintain on to it?

Ben Clemens: Simply that a variety of these guys haven’t appeared almost as sharp after leaving the pleasant confines of the Yanks minor league system. they did an amazing job buying and selling built-up pitchers for a ton of individuals within the lats few years. I feel they bought Frankie Montas completely for pitchers, kind of

Ben Clemens: yeah Ken Waldichuk, Luis Medina, JP Sears

Ben Clemens: they did the identical for Soto

Ben Clemens: and I feel in a variety of these circumstances, they’re buying and selling like one-ish extra arm than you’d count on, and that’s as a result of groups are like ‘can AL these guys be that good?’

Visitor: Ben, how outdated is the pre recreation win chance mannequin as proven within the Stay Scoreboard?  Has there been any emphasis on modifying it to reinforce predictions?

Ben Clemens: Actually relies upon what you imply by outdated. It’s undoubtedly easy. It simply builds projected run scoring and runs allowed based mostly on the posted recreation lineups on either side (and a quite simple accounting for the bullpen)

Massive Reem: Wheeler must be proper behind Scherzer on the most effective free agent contracts, proper? Didn’t see his title talked about

Ben Clemens: Just a few different individuals pointed him out, and yeah

Ben Clemens: he undoubtedly counts

Visitor: If Scherzer is the most effective free agent contract above 100 million, is Strasburg the worst?  The Nationals pitchers giveth and the Nationals pitchers taketh away.

Ben Clemens: Oh, certainly not, b/c the Nats virtually assuredly bought a variety of insurance coverage funds again

Seiya ain’t So: Will Seiya Suzuki ever recover from the hump?  Each time he appears to be like like he’s about to interrupt out, he falls again to earth.  The protection has been inconsistent.  What’s your tackle his future?

Ben Clemens: man…. I nonetheless assume he’ll

Ben Clemens: regardless of having been mistaken about this particular factor many occasions

Ben Clemens: I completely imagine in Seiya

Ben Clemens: and he appeared like he figured all of it out on the finish of final yr, after which nope

Ben Clemens: i imply, he’s nonetheless hitting, i’ll give him that

Ben Clemens: however I assumed he’d enhance on protection by greater than he has, and accidents have undoubtedly been a constant downside

Ben Clemens: I feel he’s what he’s at this level, principally

Farhandrew Zaidman: leaguewide OPS common is beneath 700….time to panic or not but?

Ben Clemens: Yeah I’m panicking

Ben Clemens: baseball is much less enjoyable to look at when nobody scores runs

SpicieBoy: I assumed the Nats had been unable to get insurance coverage protection on the Strasburg contract because of his damage historical past

nats fan: There was no insurance coverage on the stras contract! He was uninsurable bc of his damage historical past

Ben Clemens: effectively that makes it worse!

Visitor: Im conscious of the methodology. I run my very own mannequin utilizing the identical framework however I feel the PA Forecasting could possibly be probably very flawed. The method of accounting for the best variety of PA’s awarded to every workforce based mostly upon the standard of their opposition (i.e. an above common hitting workforce goes to accrue extra PA’s in a single recreation towards a beneath common pitching workforce than their season common), these items trigger extra Base Runs to be achieved . Any concept you guys are accounting for the PA interplay results?

Ben Clemens: Let’s simply say that’s low on our checklist, the location has had a ton of cool enhancements lately however I feel revamping our recreation odds from like, fairly good (we’ve examined them they usually do alright) so as to add slightly is just not highest precedence

Ben Clemens: that’s not likely my space, I’m only a generally helper

Ben Clemens: however I’d guess there are a lot of issues we’d repair earlier than that

SpicieBoy: Unironically I would like MLB to rejuice the baseballs. I don’t get why we had been mad about that in 2019. 2017-2019 was a extremely enjoyable time for baseball

Plate self-discipline metrics: Is there a abstract someplace on the location of the distinction between the three units of plate self-discipline metrics (statcast?pitch data/SIS)?

Plate self-discipline metrics: can there be a abstract of the totally different sources of plate disciple metrics

Ben Clemens: There isn’t however I may give you one right here

Ben Clemens: they measure the strike zone barely otherwise

Ben Clemens: that’s the entire totally different

London Calling: % probability Luis Robert goes on the deadline? And which groups are most probably to get him?

Ben Clemens: I simply have it very low

Plate self-discipline metrics: thanks for answering my butchered query.  Is yet another correct?  SIS zone appears waaaay totally different

Ben Clemens: I dunno, actually! I similar to utilizing the identical one each time for consistency. So I have a tendency to only use Statcast these daysb/c generally I’m pulling information straight from Savant

Farhandrew Zaidman: i’ve seen a conspiracy principle that the league messed with 2024 balls (shocker) to attempt to restrict how a lot breaking pitches transfer, with the unintended consequence being they don’t fly as far

Ben Clemens: I may completely see that

I would like my child again child again child again: Relating to the low league broad OPS, what are your most well-liked approaches/solutions on tips on how to improve it?

Ben Clemens: I would like extra vigorous baseballs. I’d wish to see experimentation with decrease roster limits for pitchers, and restrictions on transactions involving pitchers who threw within the earlier recreation

New Yanks velo: The standard Nats world knowledge: The Nats bought little or no, if something, again in Stras insurance coverage. (Supply: Svrluga reporting or educated guess, or a combo)

SpicieBoy: Are Savant stats (xwOBA, xERA, and so forth) helpful? Baseballsavant has mentioned that they’re supposed to be descriptive, not predictive. I’ve examined them and located they’re truly generally much less predictive than actual world outcomes. Constructing a statistical mannequin to foretell what “ought to have” occurred looks like an inherently flawed course of (an ideal mannequin would let you know would truly occurred, a extremely dangerous mannequin would don’t have any foundation in actuality). That looks like a variety of inherent statistical error, and if these numbers aren’t predictive then I don’t see how they’re truly helpful. I additionally take excessive concern with some charge stats (like barrel%) being introduced as per BBE as an alternative of per PA. This appears to punish hitters like Bellinger who minimize their Okay% for sometimes weak contact however nonetheless hit roughly the identical variety of barrels per PA

Ben Clemens: Dan did one thing on this

bosoxforlife: It’s the season for peach roulette and my native grocery had them on sale final week. I risked $4 on 6 beauties and hit the jackpot. All had been good!

Ben Clemens: I misplaced at tomato roulette SO HARD yesterday

Ben Clemens: purchased some on the native fancy schmancy grocery retailer for a salad they usually had been abysmal

Decide: “baseball is much less enjoyable to look at when nobody scores runs”: And it grew to become private for me (observe: that is what Jordan truly mentioned)

Ben Clemens:

Ben Clemens: alright, I’m performing some caretaking of the sick (spouse and canine, what a double whammy), so I’m gonna name it a day. Thanks a lot for chatting with me and I’ll speak to you once more subsequent week