Xander Bogaerts‘ first season as a second baseman hasn’t gone as deliberate. He’s struggled mightily on the plate to this point, and whereas he’s fared higher defensively, on Monday he suffered a fracture in his left shoulder whereas diving for a ball. He might miss a few months, leaving the Padres — who regardless of going simply 27-26 to this point at present occupy the third NL Wild Card spot — to fend with out him.
The damage occurred throughout the first recreation of Monday’s doubleheader in Atlanta. With the bases loaded within the third inning, Bogaerts ranged to his left to attempt to cease a Ronald Acuña Jr. grounder. He dove in time to get his glove on the ball, however he landed arduous, and awkwardly. He instantly started writhing on the bottom and will solely wrist-flip the ball to shortstop Ha-Seong Kim, who noticed the play to its conclusion — a run scored, although Bogaerts’ cease most likely prevented a second one from doing in order properly — and motioned for assist.
“As quickly as I caught the ball, I heard, like, cracks. 4 cracks,” Bogaerts informed reporters. “At that time, I used to be like, ‘One thing’s improper.’ I didn’t really feel precisely like one thing shifted. I simply felt, like, cracks.”
4 cracks! In one other telling, it was “a pair,” however with an necessary element: “I didn’t really feel something come out after which return in. The one factor I bear in mind listening to was a pair cracks.”
Presumably Bogaerts was explaining that he didn’t really feel as if he’d suffered a soft-tissue damage. Whereas preliminary x-rays had been unfavourable, a subsequent analysis confirmed a fracture in his left shoulder, and whereas the Padres didn’t supply additional specificity, the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee reported that the fracture is in his shoulder socket. That may counsel a glenoid fracture, significantly given the traumatic nature of the damage, however such accidents normally contain tears of the labrum, and the Padres have since confirmed that Bogaerts didn’t endure a tear, nor will he want surgical procedure. By comparability, when Crimson Sox shortstop Trevor Story dove for a ball and dislocated his left shoulder on April 5, he suffered a glenoid rim fracture and tore his posterior labrum, each of which had been addressed with season-ending surgical procedure. Below the Knife’s Will Carroll identified that given the mixture of a scarcity of sentimental tissue harm and an preliminary report that Bogaerts’ shoulder was steady, the method of elimination factors to the scapula because the fractured bone.
That’s the excellent news, however the unhealthy information is that Bogaerts continues to be anticipated to be out two to a few months in response to Acee. Bogaerts expressed the assumption that he’d be again sooner, although his phrases learn extra like an athlete’s bravado than an knowledgeable replace. “Two to a few months, no,” he mentioned. “Nah, nah. I perceive we wish to be good, however I’ll be again earlier than that. I don’t just like the sound of all these months.”
For the 31-year-old infielder, the damage is simply the newest surprising flip in a season that hasn’t lacked for them. Throughout spring coaching, the Padres satisfied Bogaerts — who signed an 11-year, $280 million contract with the crew in December 2022 and spent the next season enjoying shortstop — to change locations with the defensively superior Kim, the crew’s major shortstop in ’22 and its Gold Glove-winning second baseman final 12 months. It’s too early to get a real learn on the returns defensively, however the prorated metrics counsel it may need value them a few runs to this point:
Padres’ Center Infield Swap Meet
| 2023 | Place | Innings | FRV | DRS | UZR | AVG/1200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kim | 2B | 856.2 | 5 | 10 | 2.6 | 8.2 |
| Bogaerts | SS | 1285.2 | 2 | -4 | -0.2 | -0.7 |
| Padres | Whole | 12969.0 | 19 | 40 | 26.2 | 2.6 |
| Bogaerts | 2B | 379.0 | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0.3 |
| Kim | SS | 442.1 | 1 | 1 | -0.5 | 1.4 |
| Padres | Whole | 4143.0 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
All information via Could 22.
It’s value noting that Manny Machado’s early-season absence at third base might have influenced Kim’s positioning and play, however we’re actually squinting at small samples. On a team-wide foundation, the Padres’ prorated metrics present the same hole — they had been additional above common final 12 months than they’re now — however when it comes to turning batted balls into outs, they’re principally unchanged; this 12 months’s .704 defensive effectivity (tied for third within the NL) is on par with final 12 months .702, which ranked third as properly.
However, it doesn’t take a lot to see that Bogaerts hasn’t been himself on the plate. Regardless of enjoying a lot of the 2023 season with a nagging left wrist damage that required spring and midseason cortisone pictures and compelled him to regulate his swing, he hit a good .285/.350/.440 (120 wRC+) with 19 homers and a career-high 19 steals in his inaugural season as a Padre. This 12 months, nonetheless, he’s slipped to .219/.265/.316 (71 wC+) with 4 homers and 4 steals. As to what’s going improper, he’s not hitting the ball very arduous, producing a career-low exit velocity and his lowest hard-hit fee since 2017. That mentioned, he’s hitting the ball within the air extra usually, and he’s pulling it extra usually:
Xander Bogaerts Batted Ball Profile
| Season | GB/FB | GB% | FB% | Pull% | BBE | EV | Barrel% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 1.07 | 40.0% | 37.4% | 45.6% | 423 | 89.6 | 9.7% | 43.0% |
| 2022 | 1.46 | 46.4% | 31.8% | 39.9% | 446 | 88.1 | 6.5% | 39.5% |
| 2023 | 1.53 | 50.4% | 32.9% | 40.2% | 492 | 87.6 | 6.1% | 34.3% |
| 2024 | 1.27 | 44.6% | 35.1% | 48.0% | 148 | 86.2 | 6.8% | 30.4% |
Pulled or no, the dearth of oomph on these fly balls is basically costing him:
Xander Bogaerts Fly Balls
| Season | BBE | EV | Dist | Barrel% | HH% | AVG | xBA | SLG | xSLG | wOBA | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 101 | 92.7 | 319 | 24.8 | 53.5 | .306 | .282 | .980 | .906 | .506 | .480 |
| 2022 | 94 | 90.7 | 298 | 20.2 | 37.2 | .315 | .256 | .843 | .708 | .460 | .407 |
| 2023 | 111 | 91.3 | 313 | 22.5 | 37.8 | .262 | .268 | .822 | .817 | .423 | .427 |
| 2024 | 38 | 89.6 | 294 | 15.8 | 31.6 | .135 | .206 | .324 | .496 | .190 | .319 |
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
That hole of practically 20 ft owes one thing to cooler spring temperatures that forestall the ball from carrying so far as it does within the hotter months, however nonetheless, it’s left its mark on Bogaerts’ manufacturing.
Bogaerts spent the primary month of the season hitting leadoff, however when he addressed his droop after an April 19 0-for-4 efficiency, he refused to lean on that or final 12 months’s wrist troubles as an excuse. “Let’s not search for no wrist points. Let’s not search for no leadoff spot,” he mentioned on the time. “The hits haven’t been falling, and it sucks once you usually get plenty of hits and now you don’t.”
As an alternative, Bogaerts expressed a perception that his points had been mechanical, and that his propensity to drag the ball wasn’t intentional:
“That’s actually uncommon, not like me… It ain’t being pull-happy. It’s simply rhythm, not (being) in sync.
“I’m conscious that I’m hitting plenty of balls over there (left subject). And I’m attempting to hit it over there (proper subject), however I nonetheless can’t do it. So, that’s the frustration… Like, you wish to do one thing and you’re feeling such as you’re not ready to have the ability to do it, or your physique doesn’t will let you do it simply by the best way I’m placing myself in place as I’m going to take a swing. That causes the errors that I hold doing. It’s actually, actually arduous for me to go the opposite manner.”
Bogaerts had improved barely since then, hitting .243/.269/.369 (85 wRC+) since April 20, however even that’s fairly cringeworthy. One further clue might supply some perception: Per The Athletic, Bogaerts reportedly has handled hip discomfort and soreness, which he attributed to the place swap. Notably given how important hip rotation is to producing bat velocity, I do surprise if that’s been an element. Multiyear bat velocity information can be useful for comparisons, however the not too long ago launched information doesn’t supply a lot assist past telling us that Bogaerts’ bat velocity ranks within the thirty first percentile. His splits by month (70.5 mph in March/April and 70.9 in Could) don’t shed any additional gentle.
Maybe the break day will enable Bogaerts a reset that helps him rediscover his stroke. As for the way the Padres will proceed with out him, on a crew whose lineup is made virtually completely out of shortstops, it’s not the steepest problem to seek out one or two able to filling in at second base. Since I wrote this in early April, the crew has traded for Luis Arraez, who even earlier than Bogaerts’ damage had made three begins on the keystone whereas Bogaerts DHed; he took the primary three begins after Bogaerts’ damage. Arraez’s bat has heated up because the Could 4 commerce; he now has a .341/.382/.422 (134 wRC+) season line on the again of a .419/.449/.514 (184 wRC+) exhibiting with San Diego, however his protection at second is questionable sufficient that the Padres want him as a DH. Final 12 months with Miami, he had 4 DRS and a couple of.4 UZR however -7 FRV in 1,124 innings at second base, whereas this 12 months in 332 innings he’s at -1 DRS, -2.1 UZR, and -6 FRV.
Beginning Arraez at second opens up the DH slot for different gamers. Machado, who didn’t play the sphere this season till April 26 whereas recovering from October surgical procedure to restore his extensor tendon in his proper elbow, has been DHing each third or fourth recreation there recently.
Requested on Wednesday who would fill in for the injured Bogaerts, supervisor Mike Shildt had this to say:
“We’re nonetheless within the technique of figuring that out… There are some issues that we’re interested by that can come into play the following couple of days that we’ll discover. We’ve got plenty of choices between three or 4 totally different guys.
“We’ll be considerably artistic with that, relative to what we’re seeing, and the pitching. However we’ll additionally create some stability that we predict individuals will like.”
The almost definitely choices in addition to the lefty-swinging Arraez are hot-hitting righty Donovan Solano (.348/.423/.391 in 26 PA since signing with the crew in mid-April), lefty Tyler Wade (.260/.341/.288, 94 wRC+), and lefty Jake Cronenworth (.263/.329/.453, 127 wRC+). Cronenworth was the crew’s common second baseman from 2020–22 earlier than shifting to first base. He’s a greater fielder than Arraez, and he did play 35 video games at second final 12 months, so in a longer-term association it’d make sense to swap the 2, as Arraez does have some first base expertise; so does Solano, for that matter, however he’s much less more likely to play day by day. On Thursday, with Reds righty Frankie Montas on the mound, the Padres rolled with Cronenworth making his season debut at second, Arraez at first, and Jurickson Profar at DH; lefty David Peralta, who signed a minor league take care of the crew final week and was recalled from Triple-A El Paso to take Bogaerts’ roster spot, performed left subject in Profar’s stead.
For as tempting because it is perhaps to counsel that the Padres might be higher with out Bogaerts given his droop, the truth is that his contract makes him a long-term fixture, and any actual success that they’ve most likely relies upon upon him recovering his type. Hopefully when he’s healed sufficient to start working his manner again, he’ll rediscover his outdated stroke.
