For years now, a easy message has been gaining traction in main league bullpens and pitching labs: Simply throw it down the center. As large league pitches have gotten speedier and bendier, the individuals who throw them have been more and more suggested to belief their stuff, cease nibbling across the edges, and assault the center of the zone. Adam Berry wrote concerning the Rays adopting this strategy in 2021. In 2022, Bryan Adams superfan Justin Choi regarded into the numbers and famous, “In every season since 2015, when Statcast information grew to become public, hitters have amassed a adverse run worth towards down-the-middle fastballs.” Final yr, Stephanie Apstein documented the phenomenon in Baltimore, whereas Hannah Keyser and Zach Crizer did the identical on a league-wide foundation, describing the Rays mannequin thusly:
Step 1: Develop unhittable stuff
Step 2: Let it rip down the center
Step 3: Win
Simply final week, Jeff Fletcher wrote that after attempting and failing to get their pitchers to assault the zone extra usually, the Angels began placing their pitchers within the field to face their very own arsenal, courtesy of a Trajekt pitching machine. “I knew my pitches have been good,” mentioned José Soriano via an interpreter, “however once I confronted myself, I discover out they’re actually good. So I’ve extra belief in my stuff now.” Pitches proper down the center are referred to as meatballs for a cause, however should you’ve ever watched peak Max Scherzer demolish the center of the opposite staff’s lineup by merely pumping 97-mph fastballs throughout the center of the plate, none of this comes as a galloping shock.
Nonetheless, I questioned whether or not I may discover information to again up this shift in mindset. Are pitchers actually attacking the zone extra usually? And are higher pitching staffs (or staffs with higher stuff) actually attacking the center of the plate extra usually? In spite of everything, the Angels rank twenty second in Stuff+ and 14th in PitchingBot Stuff, to not point out close to the underside in ERA, FIP, and xFIP. In the event that they really feel this good about their stuff, I’d think about that each staff does.
To begin with, I must acknowledge that we don’t have a method to know a pitcher’s intention. We don’t know the place they’re attempting to place the ball; we solely know the place it finally ends up. (Earlier this month, Michael Rosen launched The Kirby Index, which makes use of launch angles to quantify command, however this metric has its limitations and command stays an idea ripe for additional research.) In breaking this down, I’m counting on two definitions of proper down the center. The primary is Recreation Day Zone 5, the rectangle that’s proper within the center if you break the strike zone into 9 equal packing containers. The second is the center of the plate as outlined by Baseball Savant’s Assault Zones, and it’s a lot greater. (By the way, zone 5 is similar in each methods.)
Thus far this season, 7.5% of all pitches have been positioned in zone 5. That’s the very best quantity on file, however the general rise has been modest. Because the starting of the pitch-tracking period, the share of pitches in zone 5 has risen by roughly 0.15 share factors, and the share of pitches within the coronary heart zone has elevated by simply over one share level. Total, the reply to our first query is a sure. On common, pitchers are hitting the center of the zone a median of two or 3 times extra usually per sport than they did at first of the pitch-tracking period. That’s not an infinite distinction, but it surely’s a little bit simpler to see these traits if we break issues down by pitch kind. (As a result of the graph under is a little bit busy, I’ve smoothed it out by combining the information in chunks of two years quite than one, aside from 2024. So the 2009 determine is definitely 2008 and 2009, and 2011 is definitely 2010 and 2011, and so forth.)
The graph makes it clear that the rise has been pushed totally by fastballs. 4-seamers have been rising steadily, whereas sinkers have taken off simply in the previous couple of years. Then again, breaking balls have been hitting the center considerably much less usually and offspeed pitches have dropped pretty dramatically. The common offspeed pitch crosses the plate 4 inches decrease this season than it did in 2008.
Subsequent, I broke issues down by staff and yr from 2021 via 2024 to see whether or not a workers’s stuff was correlated with hitting the center of the plate extra usually. For instance, this yr, the Mets have hit the center of the zone least usually, at 24.9%, whereas the Brewers have hit it most frequently, at 27.9%. A selection of simply three share factors isn’t monumental (and the unfold for pitches in zone 5 is simply 1.7 share factors), however utilizing a pattern of 30 groups over 4 years, there’s sufficient information to return away with some conclusions. Utilizing PitchingBot and Stuff, I discovered that there was primarily no correlation between stuff grades and the general share of down-the-middle pitches. Nonetheless, there was a correlation to the share of down-the-middle four-seamers. Groups which have higher stuff aren’t essentially throwing extra pitches down the center general, however they’re throwing extra of their fastballs down the center. For Stuff+ the correlation is .18, and for Pitching Bot it’s .17. These are small numbers, however the correlations get a bit bigger if we take a look at general efficiency. The correlation between the share of fastballs over the center of the plate and FIP- is -.37, and the correlation to ERA- is -.35. Crew with higher stuff, and groups that carry out higher general, actually do throw extra of their four-seamers proper down major road.
I diced these staff numbers yet another approach, this time evaluating sure efficiency metrics each inside and outdoors the center zone to stuff grades. (To be clear, these have been the staff’s general stuff grades; there was no approach for me to separate out their stuff particularly on pitches over the center of the plate.) Clearly, most of these efficiency metrics are higher for the pitchers outdoors the center of the plate. You’ll earn extra whiffs and permit fewer hard-hit balls if you’re not throwing meatballs. Nonetheless, I used to be shocked to search out that the correlation between stuff and efficiency is a bit weaker over the center of the plate. For instance, on pitches over the center of the plate, Stuff+ and hard-hit fee have a correlation coefficient of -.32. Outdoors the center of the plate, that correlation coefficient is -.42. Wherever you throw the ball, having higher stuff will lead to fewer hard-hit balls, however that stuff is much less of a differentiator proper over the center of the plate. I suppose I used to be shocked as a result of I figured anyone can induce a weakly hit ball in the event that they’ve obtained you chasing or swinging at a pitch proper on the nook, but it surely takes higher stuff to make you look dangerous on a pitch proper down the center. It seems that is unsuitable; higher stuff performs up in all places, however much more so outdoors the center of the plate. When you’re throwing a meatball, the standard is much less necessary. I feel this illuminates the complexity of the difficulty, as a result of to some extent, there’s a lie on the coronary heart of the “Throw It Down the Center” Faculty of Pitching.
In case you have nice stuff, it’ll play up anyplace, so it’s safer so that you can throw it down the center than it’s for some lesser pitcher. However clearly, hitting the nook or throwing a tempting pitch outdoors the zone would nonetheless lead to higher outcomes for you, and your stuff would play up much more on the market. It’s simply that hitting the nook isn’t really easy, and attempting to take action comes with its personal downsides. I firmly consider that throwing pitches with conviction makes an enormous quantity of distinction. It’s one of many causes that gamers like Yadier Molina and Christian Vázquez have by no means wished for a job, even when the numbers didn’t love them. Pitchers belief them fully. A pitcher who believes of their stuff, who has been conditioned to problem batters, goes to get higher outcomes. They’re not attempting to be too wonderful; they’re letting it rip. And regardless, in the event that they’re constantly aiming for the center of the zone, they’re going to throw fewer balls, be forward within the rely extra usually, and permit fewer walks. That by itself could be value permitting just a few extra hard-hit balls or shedding just a few whiffs.
The brings us to the final piece of the puzzle: command. Whereas writing and researching this text, I saved coming again to one thing Lance Brozdowski mentioned final July. Brozdowski was responding to a clip of Shohei Ohtani hitting the sides of the zone over and over final summer season. The factor is, on almost each pitch, the catcher flashed a goal that was within the very middle of the plate. The catcher was principally caressing zone 5. “That is maybe the most effective instance of ‘let your miss take you to the sides of the zone’ that I’ve ever seen,” Brozdowski wrote, “significantly on his fastballs.” Brozdowski put a 40 grade on Ohtani’s command, however defined that when the catcher units up within the center, “he lets it eat & his stuff is bananas good.” A participant like Ohtani can intention for the middle of the zone, miss by a bit, and find yourself on the nook. Even when he misses proper down the center, his stuff is sweet sufficient to outlive some meatballs. Moreover, even when he doesn’t miss in any respect, he’s obtained a great probability of ending up on a nook anyway. Sticking with Ohtani for example, I’ve taken his 2023 motion profile from Brooks Baseball, then overlaid it on a Baseball Savant diagram of the strike zone on the correct scale. (Ignore the large dots on the left and proper; with a view to get a clear diagram of the zone, I looked for all of the instances Ohtani hit a batter with a pitch. That is why batters put on elbow guards.)
If Ohtani had good command and easily threw every pitch in order that it began out headed immediately for the middle of the zone, all the things aside from his cutter and his four-seamer would find yourself proper on the sting of the zone. (Additionally, a four-seamer positioned up within the zone like that, particularly Ohtani’s four-seamer, is certainly not a foul pitch) And once more, that’s simply if he goals for and hits his meant goal within the middle of the strike zone earlier than it breaks. Not each pitcher has stuff nearly as good as Ohtani’s, however the lesson stays the identical. Aiming down the center and lacking on the nook is a method that makes plenty of sense.
Whether or not it’s as a result of throwing pitches down the center is an effective factor, or it’s as a result of attempting to take action comes with all these ancillary advantages, the plan does appear to be working. So long as stuff retains bettering, simply chucking it proper down the center will make an increasing number of sense for pitchers. That’s clearly not the case for everybody. If Kyle Hendricks goals proper down the center, he’s going to throw it proper down the center, and that’s not going to work out so scorching. If this have been 30 years in the past, when extra pitchers lived by command and there was an even bigger strike zone that supplied extra protected locations to place a pitch, the numbers I’ve proven you would possibly look very totally different. However in at present’s sport, when there’s a surfeit of pitchers who’ve the stuff however would possibly lack both the command or the conviction, getting proper to the center of the matter is right here to remain.
