It’s actually obscene.
Two weeks in a row, Sydney’s successful streak, and their standing as undisputed – and heavy – premiership favourites, has appeared underneath risk, as first Geelong after which Adelaide made it their missions to hunt 2024’s finest aspect.
With tackling strain, ferocity on the laborious ball and fast ball motion proving the final word take a look at of the defensive attribute’s of probably the most devastating attacking workforce we’ve seen since Hawthorn of their pomp some 9 years in the past, the Swans have been made to look decidedly weak in each side; from a leaky defence to mentioned depth considerably impacting the normally immaculate foot abilities of even their most deadly kicks.
And two weeks in a row, all that dominance, be it for 1 / 4 or a half, has evaporated within the blink of an eye fixed, and proved to haven’t made a rattling little bit of distinction.
So it was for the Crows, who for 2 and a half quarters defended like males possessed, tackled viciously and clamped down on all of the Swans’ many, many midfield weapons, and have been environment friendly sufficient from the restricted alternatives that got here their technique to lead by 16 factors on the 16-minute mark of the third quarter.
However when the Swans determine to show it on, you may as effectively be attempting to defend a photo voltaic flare. They rip the ball out of stoppages with the grace of a gazelle and the blunt drive of a sledgehammer to the groin. Up ahead, completely bizarre, workaday key forwards morph into Wayne Carey – for all Joel Amartey’s development as a footballer throughout his first 5 AFL seasons, an eight-goal destroyer of worlds was not on my Saturday evening Bingo card.
They didn’t even want to drag out their different trick of slicing the Crows to ribbons off half-back with Nick Blakey, Ollie Florent and co., as a result of the ball immediately wasn’t coming down there for them to do it. It’s nearly unfair to have that many scoring avenues, and all however unimaginable to cease them placing a rating on the board. Little surprise they’ve solely gone beneath 80 as soon as all yr (of their one loss to Richmond) and now have 4 consecutive triple-figure scores besides.
The scariest factor of all? There are nonetheless flaws within the Swans’ system. Apparent flaws, points which might be straightforward to identify and simpler for a training group to determine and try to deal with. Little chinks within the armour that specify why the de facto finest workforce within the league can path a workforce just like the Crows in a world of ache throughout the week by three targets with 1 / 4 and a half to go, even when they do find yourself successful by 42.
Their first quarters, for starters: they’ve led at quarter time simply as soon as of their final six video games, together with a 5 targets to zip opening towards Geelong and the Crows bagging 4 of the sport’s first 5 targets on the Adelaide Oval.
They’re eye take a look at issues, like Chad Warner’s tendency to try to be a millionaire with a few of his kicks going ahead slightly than accepting easy, high-percentage however lower-yield choices. He’s a greater participant than his 50 per cent disposal effectivity and 7 clangers from Saturday evening; as is Errol Gulden (54 per cent and eight), who isn’t fairly as rash as typically as Warner is but additionally isn’t the cruel dead-eye he was in his first three seasons.
Defensively, their marks inside 50 numbers towards are starting to balloon. As much as and together with a powerful win over Carlton in Spherical 10, they have been conceding 9.8 of them per sport, however of their wins over the Western Bulldogs, Geelong and Adelaide, all with nervy intervals for various quantities of time, that quantity has jumped to 13 regardless of giving up fewer inside 50s per sport – within the first ten rounds, that quantity was at 49.9, but it surely has fallen barely of their final three video games to 48.
A quantity like 12 marks from 35 inside 50s ought to and can fear John Longmire, as will the very fact ten completely different Crows contributed at the least one in all them to a tally from 12. Minus Taylor Walker, the spearhead, Darcy Fogarty, had simply two of them: most have been the Crows’ midfielders and wingers pushing inside 50 and discovering free house with their Swans opponents not paying them sufficient heed to cease it.
There’s no approach recognized Will Hamill’s kick to Jake Soligo within the above video went 15 metres, but it surely illustrates the purpose properly: there are Crows queuing up in each body of the digital camera shot, and a conspicuous absence of Swans, with most both a step behind the play racing to catch up or having pushed too deep forward to create house for Soligo to mark uncontested.
The Swans’ defensive frailties have been a big motive for his or her 2023 hunch, and fixing it has been a cornerstone to Longmire and his workforce’s success in 2024. However the numbers will let you know that the ladder-leaders’ plan wants some tweaking, lest it manifest right into a extra significant issue within the run residence as extra time and power is spent by rivals poring over their video games attempting to show weak factors.
Not as instantly noticeable, however simply as profound, is that the Swans have turn into far more weak in giving up scores from stoppages. I wrote a month in the past how Sydney have been the very best within the enterprise on the clearance sport, not by way of successful them however by way of scoring from them and stopping being scored upon.
Over their final 5 weeks, they’ve slowly however certainly began to leak extra scores from this supply – they gave up 24.5 per sport on the time of their win over Carlton, however that’s as much as 27 within the final six weeks together with that match, which drops them all the way down to a snug third behind Gold Coast and Collingwood.
That knowledge is meaningless with out an eye fixed take a look at to again it up, and Izak Rankine, constantly a menace for the Swans round clearances, offered an ideal one within the third quarter.
Rankine’s function all evening was to try to make the likes of Isaac Heeney and Warner defensively weak, or at the least make them take into consideration him as a lot because the footy.
There’s no simpler place to do that than a stoppage inside 50, the place you could be as kamikaze as you want as a result of your workforce has the benefit of territory.
Take a look at each how shortly Rankine gathers the faucet and snaps for purpose, in addition to the perfection of the timing on his crumb. Most noticeably, notice how Heeney, the presumptive Brownlow Medal favorite in a career-best yr, merely can not go together with his burst of tempo, and with that single chain breaking the entire system breaks down instantly.
It’s a weak point of the Swans’ energy: James Rowbottom and Taylor Adams present the grunt and strain on-ball to enrich the attacking weapons of Heeney, Warner and Gulden, however neither of that duo are fast sufficient to even remotely hassle an all-out-attack pace demon that’s Riley Meredith. And the golden trio could be uncovered in case you have leg pace and purpose nous – I’d be gobsmacked if, subsequent week, GWS didn’t attempt one thing related with a Toby Bedford or Brent Daniels to try to disrupt.
Certain, that vulnerability is the worth paid for aggressiveness, but it surely wasn’t one they wanted to pay in any respect to begin the season. That it’s beginning to turn into a trade-off, and for various intervals of matches, is why they’ve shipped leads towards the Bulldogs, Cats and Crows in three successive matches.
Not one of the above is unfixable, particularly with time – and proper now, a full three video games clear atop the ladder and with two months to go earlier than finals, Longmire and his teaching employees have on a regular basis on this planet to get it proper earlier than it’s too late.
And if something, that these points exist ought to come as a reduction to Swans supporters who should already be daring to dream: nobody needs to be good on the season’s midpoint. It breeds overconfidence and raises hope within the minds of followers.
As for the excellent news for the opposite 17 golf equipment? The Swans may need received by their troubled final fortnight unblemished and entrenched within the prime 4 for now, however they don’t seem to be unbeatable or invulnerable. Removed from it.
