The Finish of the 2016 Cubs Is Coming

These are the saddest of doable phrases,
Bryant to Báez to Rizzo.
Seeing projected WAR reduce into thirds,
Bryant to Báez to Rizzo.
Shortly declining in different crew’s hats,
by plate self-discipline or by powerless bats,
concussions and sore backs flip comebacks to splats,
Bryant to Báez to Rizzo.

The 2016 season was one of many biggest within the historical past of the Chicago Cubs, a franchise that dates again to 1870, earlier than the Nationwide League even existed. After profitable the World Collection and ending a championship drought that dated again to 1908, there have been plenty of causes to assume this crew would proceed to make deep playoff runs for one more 5 or 6 years. Positive, that they had a reasonably outdated beginning rotation, with solely Kyle Hendricks anticipated to stay round for some time, however the lineup seemed prefer it was geared up for an extended stretch of dominance. Addison Russell was 22, Javier Báez and Kyle Schwarber had been every 23, Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, and Willson Contreras had been all 24, and Anthony Rizzo was nonetheless simply 26. The crew’s massive free agent signing from the earlier winter, Jason Heyward, didn’t have a superb first season in Chicago, however at 26, a bounce-back marketing campaign wasn’t out of the query. Nonetheless, this model of the Chicago Cubs would end up to solely have 4 postseason wins and a single playoff collection win (the 2017 NLDS) left in them. What’s extra, the three brightest stars in that constellation, Bryant, Báez, and Rizzo, had been all traded on the 2021 deadline forward of reaching free company. Now, years later, every faces a really unsure future.

The 2016 crew began shedding items virtually instantly. As anticipated, the pitching employees pale away, with Hendricks rapidly the final man standing. To switch the nearer they rented for the 2016 run, Aroldis Chapman, the Cubs despatched Soler to the Royals in return for a single season of Wade Davis. Russell was injured for a lot of 2017, struggled in 2018, after which was suspended as a consequence of critical prices of home violence; he final performed within the majors in 2019. Heyward by no means actually received again to being the participant he was earlier than signing with Chicago. The remaining all departed by way of trades or in free company, with Contreras the final one to go away Wrigley Subject following the 2022 season. The crew was within the combine for a playoff spot final yr and nonetheless may get again into the fray this yr, but when they do, it will likely be with little or no of the DNA of the 2016 crew remaining.

Bear in mind after I talked about that Báez, Bryant and Rizzo face unsure futures? All three left 2023 with a worse outlook than they entered the yr with, and 2024 has solely continued that disagreeable trajectory. In 146 mixed video games this season, they’ve hit .203/.265/.299 with 11 dwelling runs in 588 PA, “good” for -1.9 WAR. Sadly, there’s little cause to be optimistic about any of them turning the nook.

Báez’s 2024 has was a catastrophe pretty rapidly. Signed to a six-year, $140 million contract by the Detroit Tigers within the winter of 2021, he disillusioned in his first season with the crew, posting a .238/.278/.393 slash line. Sadly, that now appears prefer it is perhaps the spotlight of his keep in Detroit: Báez dropped to a .222/.267/.325 line final season and is setting a brand new commonplace of underperformance this yr, hitting .183/.209/.247, with a again damage and a excessive wage probably all that’s conserving an outdated English “D” on his cap.

ZiPS has at all times had considerations about Báez’s plate self-discipline and the additional danger related to it, however across the time the Cubs gained the World Collection, the pc nonetheless anticipated him to make a minimum of some contribution within the early-to-mid-2020s:

At this level, nevertheless, the full-fat ZiPS projections don’t see a comeback within the playing cards for Báez in 2025 or, effectively, ever:

Issues haven’t gone significantly better for Báez’s former teammates. Bryant’s 2024 season barely received began earlier than he landed on the IL with a again damage courtesy of a collision with the outfield wall on April 13. Lower than two weeks after returning in late Might, a ribcage damage from one other intimate encounter with a wall put him proper again on the IL, and he was finally additionally recognized with an indirect damage; there’s no timetable for his return.

Sadly, this has been a recurring theme for Bryant in Denver. Signed to a seven-year, $182 million deal, Bryant initially hit effectively for the Rockies, however he missed important time in 2021, principally as a consequence of two IL stints ensuing from again issues. More healthy in 2022 — a minimum of till issues together with his proper foot reduce his season quick — Bryant’s offense nearly disappeared, and his anemic efficiency on the plate stretched into the beginning of this season. As with Báez, ZiPS has very restricted expectations about Bryant’s future:

It’s a projection that stands in sharp distinction to the pc’s expectations in 2016. ZiPS thought that if any of the Cubs had been going to place collectively a Corridor of Fame run, it will most probably be Bryant. A primary-round choose in 2013, Bryant blasted via the minors, and his 2015 projection was the most effective ZiPS had ever given to a rookie (after Mike Trout). Bryant gained an MVP award in 2016 to associate with his ring, and ZiPS anticipated him to be a famous person for a very long time to return:

That projection would have been sufficient to get Bryant a profession WAR within the excessive 60s, greater than 2,000 hits, and almost 400 homers. He almost matched his 2016 season in 2017, and all the pieces seemed to be going as deliberate. Hitting .319/.467/.536 in 2018, Bryant was hit within the face by an errant Germán Márquez pitch and missed per week. Whether or not or not that damage shares any of the blame, Bryant by no means returned to his 2016-17 kind once more. Whereas he was actually a good participant for a lot of the remainder of his time in Chicago, his very respectable 17.4 WAR from 2017 via 2021 was significantly lower than his 28.1-WAR projection (32.4 earlier than taking the shortened 2020 under consideration).

ZiPS by no means actually appreciated his take care of the Rockies, seeing Bryant’s greatest days as being effectively behind him and projecting him for just a few extra seasons as an honest starter in left discipline:

As uninspiring a projection as that’s, Bryant and the Rockies would virtually actually want my pc’s imaginative and prescient of the longer term to the one which has come to go, a minimum of thus far. Now, the principle query isn’t how he’ll do on the crew, however fairly the circumstances beneath which he’ll go away.

As for Rizzo, he has additionally fallen in need of his projections, however he’s had a much less eventful decline, a minimum of till 2023:

After 2021, Rizzo signed a two-year, $32 million contract with the Yankees; after exercising his opt-out clause following the 2022 season, he signed one other low-key pact, this one a two-year, $40 million deal. His 2022 and 2023 numbers don’t look that dissimilar to what ZiPS anticipated for this stage of his profession again in 2016 — that’s, till Fernando Tatis Jr.’s hip related with Rizzo’s noggin throughout a pickoff try in early 2023. Rizzo initially handed a battery of exams, returning to the lineup after just some missed video games. However his bat disappeared for 2 months and after he described fogginess, the crew ran exams that discovered cognitive impairment; he was positioned on the IL with post-concussion syndrome and missed the remainder of the season.

Whereas he was capable of get again into the lineup this season, his bat didn’t return, and he solely hit .223/.289/.341 till one other collision, this time with Brennan Bernardino, resulted in a fractured arm that appears to maintain him out for 2 months. The Yankees known as up Ben Rice to take Rizzo’s spot on the roster; he’ll share first base reps with DJ LeMahieu in the intervening time. At this level, ZiPS truly sees Rice because the equal of Rizzo, projecting a 106 wRC+ for each gamers for the remainder of the season, which means that the Yankees gained’t lose something within the win column because of this.

And not using a long-term contract motivating his crew to provide him comeback makes an attempt, the top appears prefer it’s coming for Rizzo extra rapidly than for Báez or Bryant:

Folks are inclined to get very aggravated with ZiPS when it initiatives decline for gamers whereas they’re on the peak of their stardom. However it does that as a result of instances like Bryant, Báez, and Rizzo aren’t truly outliers whenever you take a look at baseball historical past. Superstardom will be surprisingly fleeing, and you may discipline a powerful lineup of Corridor of Famers who primarily earned their entry to Cooperstown for what they did of their 20s. Ken Griffey Jr. wasn’t invincible, nor had been Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera.

Outdoors of Schwarber, issues aren’t going effectively for the few different remaining 2016 Cubs, both. Hendricks had a strong outing on Wednesday, however that solely served to get his ERA under 8.00. Contreras received off to a dynamite begin, however he needed to have surgical procedure on his arm after a brutal fracture; it stays to be seen if he’ll return to kind. And whereas Heyward has had a little bit of a second wind in Los Angeles, he’s a task participant as of late. The tsunami that was the 2016 Cubs has been lowered to a delicate ripple that simply barely laps the partitions of sand castles.

So, what lesson ought to groups draw from the 2016 Cubs? It’s not that you simply shouldn’t worth your younger stars, however fairly that irrespective of how brilliant your future appears, there’s zero assure it’ll find yourself being as dazzling as you anticipate. Right now’s Orioles strike me as one of many groups specifically that ought to be aware of this. Sure, the O’s have a really younger, very gifted core, but when they’re conservative about making offers subsequent month on the commerce deadline or supplementing their roster later this winter, they could come to remorse it. The 2023-24 rosters may very effectively be the most effective Orioles groups of this technology, and there would possibly by no means be a greater alternative for this squad to get to the World Collection. Seizing the day isn’t only a lesson for baseball, however a lesson for all of us.