Right this moment, we’re right here to speak about Ryan McMahon, however earlier than we are able to try this, we have to speak about Joe Kutina. Joe Kutina didn’t steal any bases in 1912. A 6-foot-2, power-hitting first baseman in his second season with the St. Louis Browns, that wasn’t essentially his job. Kutina earned his spot in 1911, batting .374 with a .589 slugging share for the Saginaw Krazy Kats of the Class-C Southern Michigan League. He joined St. Louis on the finish of the season, placing up a 96 wRC+ with three dwelling runs in 26 video games with the Browns. In 1912, his wRC+ dropped to 59 and he launched only one homer in 69 video games. He additionally obtained caught stealing seven occasions.
I do know that getting caught stealing seven occasions feels like so much, however issues had been a bit totally different again then. Within the 1912 season, 73 gamers obtained caught stealing at the least seven occasions. Ty Cobb led the league with 34 unsuccessful steal makes an attempt, and three different gamers additionally obtained nabbed at the least 30 occasions. The distinction is that Cobb and people three others mixed for 203 profitable steals. Kutina, as soon as once more, stole zero bases. That made him the primary participant in AL/NL historical past to get caught stealing at the least 4 occasions with out efficiently stealing a single base in a season — or at the least to be recorded doing so in that period of spottier report maintaining. In response to Stathead, during the last 112 years, simply 216 gamers have replicated Kutina’s doubtful accomplishment. Though that averages out to a bit under two per season, the distribution isn’t precisely even.
We’re solely third of the best way into this decade, however until the tempo picks up dramatically, we’ll finish with the bottom whole because the days when Joe Kutina was lumbering across the bases with reckless abandon. Because it seems, one of many modifications wrought by the information revolution was an unwillingness to let gamers who had been incapable of stealing a base preserve making an attempt and failing again and again. That is why folks don’t like analytics.
Thus far this decade, Nicky Lopez is the one participant who has completed the feat, one way or the other getting caught 5 occasions with out a stolen base in 2020. He’d go on to steal 22 bases in 23 makes an attempt in 2021, so I may need to commit one other article to wanting into how he managed to fail so prolifically, particularly throughout a 60-game season. For at present, nevertheless, our matter is the one participant who has already entered Kutina territory this season. Right here’s the present checklist of steal-less gamers who’ve been caught at the least twice, placing them on tempo to hitch the illustrious Kutina Membership of Insistently Unsuccessful Basestealers. For leisure functions, I’ve additionally included their dash velocity and its percentile rank. Curiously, 4 of them are (or had been) third basemen. And there’s our buddy Ryan McMahon.
McMahon is no person’s thought of a burner. Coming into this season, he had accrued -3.1 profession baserunning runs. Nevertheless, he was 24-for-36 in stolen base makes an attempt, which comes out to a definitely-not-good-but-not-necessarily-disastrous 66.7%, and he’s stolen at the least 5 bases in every of the previous three seasons. This yr, his Nineteenth-percentile dash velocity, whereas not excellent, is his quickest since 2021. McMahon nonetheless has 102 video games during which to steal a base and keep away from becoming a member of Kutina on the graph above, however let’s take a look at what’s been going unsuitable up to now this season. His first caught stealing got here on April 9 towards the Diamondbacks.
At first blush, it’s arduous to place an excessive amount of blame on McMahon right here. Gabriel Moreno has a wonderful arm, and since this can be a double steal, McMahon must guarantee that Ezequiel Tovar is definitely going earlier than he commits. Then again, the primary baseman isn’t even holding McMahon. He is aware of the steal is on, and he simply might’ve taken a a lot larger lead. Furthermore, his soar is really atrocious. He doesn’t begin transferring till Merrill Kelly is nicely into his leg kick and Tovar is in a full dash.
This nonetheless body tells you all the pieces it’s good to know. Kelly’s left leg is at its apex. Tovar is already digging for third together with his head down. McMahon hasn’t even taken his crossover step but. His first step towards second gained’t come till Tovar’s fifth step towards third. No surprise he’s out by a mile. He didn’t decelerate noticeably, but it surely’s potential that he didn’t rise up to high velocity as a result of he wasn’t anticipating Moreno to go for the path runner.
McMahon obtained caught for a second time on April 28, and it actually is difficult to fault him for this one. To begin with, he was referred to as protected on the sector.
McMahon clearly beat Victor Caratini’s excessive throw, and it took a replay evaluate to exhibit that his foot had levitated off second base by a centimeter or two. Joe Kutina by no means needed to take care of this rubbish.
Quite than present replays through the evaluate, ESPN minimize away to a hockey promo, so we by no means obtained to see what McMahon’s lead or soar had been like, however the state of affairs makes a specific amount of sense. Framber Valdez is common to under common at holding runners, and Caratini’s arm graded out poorly in 2023 (although he’s been higher up to now this season). With two outs, McMahon waited till Valdez obtained two strikes towards Elias Díaz with two straight curveballs, the second within the grime. From 2020 to 2023, Valdez ran a 50% strikeout fee as soon as he obtained to 2 strikes, approach above the league common of 42.6%. His .229 OBP in these conditions was additionally much better than the remainder of the league. Why not take an opportunity, particularly with one other curveball doubtless? If McMahon had been thrown out, Díaz would get a contemporary probability the subsequent inning.
McMahon’s third caught stealing got here simply 4 days later, and that is when issues began to go off the rails. He took off within the very first inning. Clearly, he’s a you-miss-100%-of-the-shots-you-don’t-take sort of man, which is an admirable angle, however barely much less so while you’re lacking 100% of the pictures you do take. As soon as once more, McMahon waited till there have been two outs and two strikes on the batter, after which set off for second base. Sadly, he uncared for to attend till the pitcher threw the pitch.
That’s to not say that he took off willy-nilly. Edward Cabrera tends to nod his head proper earlier than he throws a pitch, and McMahon should have thought he had him timed up. Cabrera had thrown over with out nodding his head, one pitch earlier, so McMahon doubtless figured that he was unlikely to burn his second disengagement on one other pickoff try. He took off when the brim of Cabrera’s cap dipped, however this time, Cabrera didn’t comply with that transfer instantly with a pitch. Within the absence of crowd noise for which Miami is legendary, the tv microphones picked up half a dozen folks shouting, “Step off!”
After the rundown, the load of his transgressions lastly appeared to hit McMahon. He eliminated his helmet and cupped it in his outstretched hand just like the cranium of Yorick. Alas, poor McMahon.
The place be his gibes now? His gambols? His songs? His flashes of merriment that had been wont to set the desk on a roar? He’s 0-for-3 in stolen base makes an attempt, and people days of hilarity are lengthy lifeless. McMahon hasn’t tried to steal one other base this season.
However he did get picked off simply three days later, making him 0-for-4.
Coming with one out within the high of the eighth and the tying run on the plate, this was the costliest of the 4 performs. It lowered Colorado’s probabilities of profitable by 11%. “Oh no,” groaned the announcers on each the Pirates and Rockies broadcasts. A replay confirmed that McMahon was merely fooled by what appeared like a really common pickoff transfer. Content material that the ball was going to dwelling plate, he shifted his consideration there and began his secondary lead, then almost fell to the bottom when he realized his mistake.
With the inning nonetheless in progress, the printed had time to comply with McMahon for the lengthy, lonely stroll again to the dugout. He trudged together with his head down, seemed up for only a second, then lowered his head once more and seemed for a darkish place the place he might be alone together with his darkish ideas.
As I discussed earlier, there’s loads of season left, and McMahon might flip this factor round at any level by one way or the other stealing only one base. Only one base, and Kutina Watch transfers its withering gaze to Nick Senzel and Jeimer Candelario.
Extra importantly, McMahon is having a profession yr on the plate. Thanks to large jumps in each contact fee and call high quality, he’s slashing .280/.369/.463, good for a 123 wRC+. Not solely is {that a} profession finest, but it surely’s additionally the primary time he’s been above 95.
Ryan McMahon Is Ryan McMashing
| BB% | EV | EV90 | HH% | Barrel% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measure | 12.2 | 93.5 | 108.2 | 55.3 | 13.8 |
| Percentile | 86 | 96 | 95 | 97 | 89 |
His stroll fee is up, his strikeout fee is down, and he’s within the ninety fifth percentile or higher when it comes to common exit velocity, ninetieth percentile exit velocity, and hard-hit fee. Joe Kutina was despatched again down the minors after his 0-for-7 season, and he was out of baseball totally after simply 53 extra video games.
McMahon, alternatively, is on tempo for his first 4-win season whereas setting profession bests in nearly each statistical class. His earlier finest was 2.9 WAR in 2022. He’s been the topic of a lot commerce hypothesis, however the Rockies have made it clear that they’ve little interest in transferring him, and that’s most likely for the most effective. He ought to most likely simply keep put any further.
