Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 5/14/24

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, people!

Jay Jaffe: All of which is to say that along with having time interacting with our readers in these chats, they’re place to get an thought of what you people are considering, and I come out of every one with no less than a few concepts — not all of which come to fruition, however they’re nonetheless helpful. So thanks for that. And now, on with the present

Shotamania: Shota has the bottom ERA in his first 8 begins (0.96) since Fernando Valenzuela manner again in 1981.  I’m simply sufficiently old to recollect Fernando-mania.  Ought to we be speaking about Shotamania?

Jay Jaffe: As any individual whose baseball fandom was in full flower throughout Fernandomania — I minimize his field scores out of the Salt Lake Tribune and taped them right into a three-ring binder — I’ve considered this comparability, and even thought of doing a Shotamania piece, however  Kyle Kishimoto, who’s not sufficiently old to recollect Fernando, beat me to the protection https://blogs.fangraphs.com/shota-imanaga-is-pitching-like-an-ace/.

Jay Jaffe: Clearly, Imanaga is on a formidable run, with a 0.96 ERA and a pair of.30 FIP by means of eight begins. Is it a mania? I don’t assume it’s had wherever close to the cultural influence of Fernandomania, which tapped into the Los Angeles Dodgers’ authentic sin of constructing their ballpark at Chavez Ravine, which compelled the eviction of almost 2,000 Mexican-American households residing there.

Jay Jaffe: I do assume the Cubs received themselves an excellent pitcher, and hope his run continues.

Justin: Hello Jay. Have you learnt how cwpa is calculated for an everyday season recreation? Thanks

Curtis: Is there any approach to discover out the load of bat gamers use? and even what the span is from lightest to heaviest?  Looks as if years in the past they swung actual lumber…I ponder if or how a lot that has modified over time.  Thanks!

Jay Jaffe: Offhand, I don’t assume there’s anyone accumulating them, and I don’t assume even Statcast may actually tease it out. Price remembering that some gamers use totally different bats towards totally different pitchers, too.

Jay Jaffe: However i do assume the overall development over time has been in direction of lighter bats. No person is swinging the type of warfare golf equipment Babe Ruth or Hack Wilson wielded.

Andy: How impressed are you with NYY catching scenario? Wells with a > .400 xwOBA, Trevino with a 129 wRC+ and an elevated emphasis on pulling fly balls. To not point out Rice and Ramirez at Somerset

Jay Jaffe: At a time when main league catching expertise appears fairly skinny, the Yankees do have probably the greatest pairs within the majors. Trevino has bounced again properly after an injury-marred season and Wells has been fairly strong due to. his plate self-discipline; each are good framers as properly.

mmddyyyy: Which stadiums don’t use actual grass?

Jay Jaffe: There are presently 5, these of the D-backs, Marlins, Rays, Rangers, and Blue Jays.

Half Man, Half Manzardo: Curious on your tackle the Prime Prospect Battle-itis this 12 months. (And, extra particularly, if Manzardo will endure the identical destiny.)

Jay Jaffe: Offense is down this 12 months relative to final and pattern sizes are small, which is a recipe for some guys struggling.

Jay Jaffe: I believe particularly given the speed we commonly see within the majors — which we typically don’t see even on the higher ranges of the minors with the identical quantity — it may be lots for a man with no MLB expertise to deal with

Jay Jaffe: Manzardo does seem like he’s struggling on condition that 40% Ok charge by means of 20 PA, however I actually assume it’s a mistake to  soar to concusions on anyone so early.

Teaberry: The Toronto Blue Jays had a lineup final night time with 4 starters who have been sons of former MLB gamers.  Has that ever been equaled or surpassed by one other staff?

Jay Jaffe: I’m unsure that’s been equalled, not to mention surpassed. The Jays can commonly area a lineup with Vlad Jr., Cavan Biggio, Bo Bichette, and Daulton Varsho so final night time was hardly a fluke.

Large Issues: Ought to SFG take into consideration promoting on the deadline?  Appears to be like grim for this 12 months, doesn’t it?

Jay Jaffe: Given so many accidents — not solely the current wave of place gamers however these to the rotation, a few of which have been guys they entered the 12 months taking a look at as in-season additions (Cobb, Ray) — I believe they’re in hassle. On the similar time, they’re simply 5 video games under .500, and few weeks can erase that.

Jay Jaffe: I favored what they did late this spring by including Soler, Chapman, and Snell however all of these guys confirmed up wanting fairly undercooked so far as prep for the season. I believe that can type itself out over time; it’s too early to panic.

Kevin: Francisco Lindor is off to a different comparatively sluggish begin and possibly a fringe NL All Star candidate. Is there a degree the place you’d take into account Lindor’s streak of lacking All Star video games deleterious to his Corridor of Fame case, whether or not or not he reaches the JAWS commonplace?

Jay Jaffe: Eh, not significantly. All-Star choices are subjective to start with, and we weigh them subjectively within the context of a Corridor of Fame case. Lindor already has extra choices (4) than Robin Yount did (3). We’re speaking a few man who’s 30 who’s already banked 5 seasons of no less than 5.0 WAR and a sixth thats’s not far off.

I additionally assume it’s value remembering that whereas Lindor will not be swinging a scorching bat, he’s typically all the time been an excellent defender, which hardly ever will get the type of consideration that results in All-Star choices if it’s not accompanied by gaudy stats.

mmddyyyy: Barring harm, does Verdugo seem like the third OF for the remainder of the season?

Jay Jaffe: I do assume that when Jasson Dominguez is prepared after rehabbing from Tommy John surgical procedure, we’ll see a good bit of him in middle area, with Choose in left and Soto in proper. That may put a squeeze on Verdugo, however he’s made a constructive impression on Boone and the Yankees so I don’t assume he’s going to be forged apart, nor do I believe the Yankees are going to press ahead with Dominguez if he doesn’t look prepared.

Baltimoron: I’m not satisfied the Orioles have a real bullpen downside (prime 11 in all of ERA, FIP, xFIP, Ok%, Ok-BB%), however there’s a evident swing-and-miss gap. How would you remedy that downside this season?

Jay Jaffe: I’d merely wave a magic wand and repair Craig Kimbrel!

Jay Jaffe: Like each different contender, I believe they’ll be within the hunt for aid assist because the deadline approaches, and so they have quite a lot of buying and selling chips, which ought to assist them get no less than one influence arm.

Evan: Plainly if a staff is a methods from contending and has a purpose of stockpiling belongings…it will not be a foul thought to mainly convert quite a lot of your SP prospects with excessive finish expertise however evident flaws (harm historical past, lack of third pitch, and so on) into closers who go all out. Positive, their arm will doubtless blow out in a 12 months or two, however the charge stats shall be insane and a few contender will certainly pounce.

Jay Jaffe: I believe it’s onerous to concurrently be a excessive finish prospect whereas missing a top quality third pitch. I can see a rebuilding staff attempting to learn by transferring a few of their lesser pitching prospects to the bullpen sooner somewhat than later, however groups additionally know they will do this with their very own pitchers somewhat than giving up the farm to get the most recent one who goes on a roll.

Jason N: Over some beers with my buddies, kicked round some dangerous contract swap concepts for Bogaerts. Mike Trout got here up.  At first we have been like “that man’s a franchise icon – they received’t commerce him” however then we remembered it’s Arte Moreno and so they may save nearly $12m/12 months.  Ought to we make it occur?

Jay Jaffe: Among the many many issues with this state of affairs is that Bogaerts has a full no-trade clause and completely no cause on God’s inexperienced earth to wish to play for the Angels.

JT: Is that this simply one other sluggish begin in a slew of them for Alex Bregman, or is that this way more troublesome?

Jay Jaffe: For a man who regarded like he is perhaps on a HOF path early in his profession, he’s been trending in direction of “merely fairly good” for just a few years. Davy Andrews did a check-in a pair weeks in the past declaring that he had made quite a lot of modifications to his swing (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/alex-bregman-is-powerless/), so possibly there’s one thing there.

playing cards fan: Watching the Cardinals implode as they’ve final 12 months and this 12 months, has it modified (to the nice) your view of Molina’s HOF candidacy?  Not solely have they suffered by means of a downgrade in  game-calling however nearly each aspect of their recreation: operating, fielding, hitting and pitching has had sudden declines

Jay Jaffe: it’s an attention-grabbing information level, nevertheless it doesn’t clarify why they maintain hiring horseshit managers.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve already conceded that the pitch-framing information at FG and BP does sufficient to bolster Molina’s case the place a easy off-the-shelf JAWS comparability makes him look mild. But when we’re going to lean on that for Molina we needs to be taking an extended look not solely at Buster Posey but in addition Russell Martin and Brian McCann.

wheelhouse: does the bat velocity information have an effect on your opinion on stanton’s outlook all through the length of his contract in any respect, or is it almost meaningless with out figuring out long-term year-to-year development on it? does him being to date above the sphere imply he has room to regulate and nonetheless be productive, or is he simply too late into his profession for that?

Jay Jaffe: that’s query. My first learn of the info is that Stanton is such an outlier that it’s absurd he doesn’t do extra to mood his strategy in an try to trim his Ok charge and increase his batting common and on-base proportion. .230/.283/.452 from a DH doesn’t have a lot worth

WinTwin0410: Jay, I often ask concerning the Corridor of Fame, however I’d wish to shake it up a bit right here and ask you who in baseball historical past have been your favourite bit participant or playersIE, a man who did one thing uncommon (hero in a single recreation or for a short while, for instance, or maybe received began tremendous late) however in any other case was under no circumstances distinguished?  (Random examples: Mickey Hatcher, Tom Lawless, Jim Morris, Billy Taylor, Rudy Pemberton, Todd Haney, John Paciorek, and so on.)

Jay Jaffe: Oh, Mickey Hatcher is a favourite on that degree. My first time listening to Vin Scully coincided with Hatcher’s first main league dwelling run on Agusust 10, 1979, which helped to again Don Sutton’s fiftieth profession shutout, after which in fact he got here up enormous within the 1988 World Sequence for the Dodgers as properly.

Because the identify of my authentic weblog (b. 2001) attests, I’ve a gentle spot for futility infielders, with Luis Sojo, Lenn Sakata, and Melvin Mora coming to thoughts. Additionally the actually craptacular catcher, Tony Suck. I may go on…

A Jolly Good Oberkfellow: Did you get to learn the Stark and Rosenthal article about methods to save the beginning pitcher on the Athletic? Are you curious about any of these proposals, or have any of your individual?

mmddyyyy: What number of instances annually do you see the tip of a recreation on the west coast?

Jay Jaffe: Greater than I ought to given how typically I’ve to stand up earlier than 7 AM, however that is the place the pitch clock has been a lifesaver.

RoyalsFan2195: The A’s seem like a half competent staff this season, so when will they cease operating Seth Brown on the market for paltry AB’s? Ok% has ballooned over 30%, Barrel % is down 4%.

Jay Jaffe: I believe they’re enjoying him within the hopes that he comes out of it and provides them a possible commerce chip, however two years of sub-replacement degree work received’t do a lot for that.

Victoria: “Is it a mania? I don’t assume it’s had wherever close to the cultural influence of Fernandomania, which tapped into the Los Angeles Dodgers’ authentic sin of constructing their ballpark at Chavez Ravine”

Tom Ricketts must do one thing horrible to make folks take note of Shota

Jay Jaffe: Tom Ricketts has executed some horrible stuff, however none of it has drawn consideration to Shota, alas.

Re-reading what I wrote I notice it was one thing of an incomplete thought. Given a second swing, I believe a greater approach to put it will be to say that Fernandomania  “tapped into a big however latent viewers of Latino and significantly Mexican and Mexican-American followers that had causes to disregard or detest the Dodgers within the wake of their authentic sin of constructing their ballpark at Chavez Ravine…” and so on.

The one that asks the lunch query: what’s for lunch?

Jay Jaffe: Leftover rooster schnitzel and Israeli salad, the originals of which have been what we made for Mom’s Day on Sunday

André René Roussimoff: The operating recreation has returned to baseball however the pitchout hasn’t come again. In the course of the ’80s, there have been even back-to-back pitchouts generally! Is it simply thought of an inefficient play by at this time’s groups? Thanks, Jay.

Jay Jaffe: That’s query and I don’t actually know the reply. I think it has one thing to do with increased velo and better strikeout charges; why waste a near-automatic ball when you may have a greater probability of neutralizing the baserunner by placing out the hitter? Simply spitballing…

Jeremy: Zack Wheeler simply too late a bloomer to have an actual shot on the HoF?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a part of his downside; he’s a pitcher who had simply 2.0 bWAR in fewer than 400 innings by means of his age-27 season. The opposite a part of it’s that even at age 34, he’s solely banked one season of 5.0 bWAR or higher, and solely three of 4.0 WAR or higher. You might possibly put an asterisk subsequent to his 2.8-WAR 2020 and depend it in that group, nevertheless it’s not sufficient to make him a severe candidate proper now.

Jack Flaherty: Subsequent participant to be traded away in Miami?  Jazz?

Jay Jaffe: Jazz or Jesus Luzardo, in the event that they persuade one other staff his medicals are OK

mmddyyyy: At what altitude does altitude matter?

John: Any probability we ever get a return of the Fangraphs podcast? I miss it dearly

Jay Jaffe: I do too; behind the scenes, we’ve had some chatter about reviving it, however to date not sufficient to beat the inertia of not having it.

Idiotic Failson: No query, only a remark – when folks speak about prospects struggling I take into consideration these Pitching Ninja movies the place individuals are throwing curveballs that break 5 toes and observe it with a 95mph painted fastball and surprise how anybody ever hits a baseball.

Jay Jaffe: baseball is tough! hitting a baseball is ridiculously onerous, and statistically not getting any simpler (word the MLB-wide batting common of .240 is the bottom it’s been since 1968).

Steve from Tampa: Is it time to fret about Gleyber Torres?

Jay Jaffe: Yeah. He belongs on the facet of a milk carton

Soiled Dan McGrew: which prospect have been you actually excessive on solely to see battle within the majors?

Jay Jaffe: Nicely, I picked Wyatt Langford as my AL Rookie of the Yr and to date that’s been, uh, not nice. Final 12 months I had Volpe within the AL and Corbin Carroll within the NL, the 12 months earlier than that Julio Rodríguez and Seiya Suzuki, and in 2021 I had Randy Arozarena and Ian Anderson; with Yamamoto my decide within the NL this 12 months i’d wind up with 4 years in a ro of choosing one Rookie of the Yr appropriately

Jack: What’s unsuitable with Gausman? He appears to be like extra droppable than a supposed prime of the rotation starter. Is it harm associated?

Jay Jaffe: There’s lots not going proper for the Blue Jays, and Gausman is only one downside — however one I’m going so as to add to my check-in listing for a attainable future article

Colton: Talked about this in Ben’s chat yesterday however I’d like your tackle it as properly. Apparently all of the Cardinals gamers totally assist Marmol and the teaching staffs methods and approaches in accordance with Katie Woo. However after 200+ video games of horrible outcomes, that has to vary in some unspecified time in the future, proper? Like they need to cease beating a useless horse and begin questioning one thing quickly

Jay Jaffe: Sure, and IMO it could change if DeWitt begins fascinated with Mozeliak’s neck.

Alan: Talking of the Playing cards and the HOF, Goldschmidt has appeared to be on a Corridor trajectory for a bit, and some extra good seasons would lock him in. However this 12 months he has fallen off a cliff. If this persists, how a lot does it have an effect on his possibilities?

Jay Jaffe: I took a fast take a look at Goldschmidt a pair weeks in the past (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/paul-goldschmidt-and-the-crowd-below-repla…) and he’s truly misplaced 5 factors of wRC+. I don’t assume what he’s going by means of is something that some changes can’t overcome, however I do surprise if he wants a change of surroundings to have a greater probability of pulling them off. The Cardinals are sinking quick and being within the place of a struggling veteran enjoying for his subsequent contract looks as if a recipe for urgent somewhat than fixing what ails.

THe GUy WHo MAKEs TRADEs: Give me a cause for a Marlins fan to be optimistic (If there may be one)

Jay Jaffe: Sometime later on this century, world warming will elevate the ocean degree sufficient to scrub away Miami, by which case the Marlins and their sordid historical past will now not be a focus of baseball discussions.

MikeD: Don’t the comparisons for gamers like Martin and McCann disintegrate because it’s not a constant evaluate throughout historical past? That was my “worry” when Fangraphs applied pitch framing. They’re merely getting an uplift on WAR that the majority catchers all through historical past don’t.

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: We will’t do all the pieces we wish to evaluate them throughout historical past however we will evaluate them inside their period and see that they have been roughly Molina’s — and Mauer’s — equal due to their framing.

Jay Jaffe: We additionally know that with strikeout charges a lot decrease in earlier eras, it issues a complete lot much less how properly, say, Yogi Berra framed pitches than it does how Buster Posey or Yadier Molina framed them.

Closers in HOF: Would Craig Kimbrell’s HOF case be helped by attending to 900+ innings in his present function (late inning excessive leverage however not essentially nearer) — even when he doesn’t get to 500+ saves in consequence?

Jay Jaffe: I believe so, as a result of he’s going to wind up with related numbers to Billy Wagner, who appears prone to achieve entry ultimately.

mr.wacker: luis sojo, hero of the 1995 1 recreation playoff…

Jay Jaffe: He additionally hit the two-run single that put the Yankees forward of the Mets within the ninth inning of Sport 6 of the 2000 World Sequence, and had just a few different huge hits that fall.

NYY: Down 12 months on the farm for the Yankees prime prospects to date this 12 months. Is there something to get enthusiastic about prospect sensible?

Jay Jaffe: Appears fairly early to begin leaping off the Spencer Jones prepare however past that I don’t actually have a bead on their system

Smiling Politely: Jay, after seeing Buehler begin twice, I’m puzzled why he isn’t nonetheless in AAA if he’s brazenly admitting he’s forgotten methods to do issues like cowl 1st on a floor ball and clearly doesn’t have consistency along with his mechanics. Any ideas?

Jay Jaffe: His rehab stint ran the utmost period of time required with out one other IL placement, and because it’s onerous to simulate the additional adrenaline that comes with being within the majors the Dodgers are giving him a glance. Past that I consider he has sufficient service time that he can’t be optioned with out his consent, and I don’t assume the Dodgers are to that degree of concern but.

Jay Jaffe: OK people, time for me to go out. thanks a lot for stopping by. We’ll do that once more quickly!

Melvin Mora: Melvin Mora a futility infielder? Two ASGs and 4 straight 4+ WAR seasons.

Jay Jaffe: Oh, simply to finish the thought — Mora hit .161 in a cup of espresso as a 27-year-old rookie; no one ever envisioned he could be the late bloomer that he grew to become. It was enjoyable to look at his evolution, significantly figuring out that his spouse gave delivery to quintuplets in 2001. The person had many mouths to feed, and so it was particularly nice that he grew to become a star.

Jay Jaffe: and with that, goodbye for now…