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HomeSwimmingIs it Cavalier to Say Douglass, A. Walsh are 2 IM Locks?

Is it Cavalier to Say Douglass, A. Walsh are 2 IM Locks?


2024 U.S. OLYMPIC TRIALS

WOMEN’S 200 Particular person Medley— BY THE NUMBERS:

  • World Document: 2:06.12 – Katinka Hosszu, Hungary (2015)
  • World Junior Document: 2:06.89 – Summer time McIntosh, Canada (2023)
  • American Document: 2:06.15 – Ariana Kukors (2009)
  • U.S. Open Document: 2:07.09 – Kate Douglass, USA (2023)
  • 2021 Olympic Champion: Yui Ohashi (JPN) – 2:08.52 
  • 2021 U.S. Olympic Trials Champion: Alex Walsh – 2:09.30
  • U.S. Olympic Trials Minimize: 2:16.09
  • 2024 Olympic Qualifying Instances: 2:11.47/2:12.13

Usually, this a part of the article would come with an extended, drawn-out overview of the previous Olympic Trials outcomes. Nonetheless, because the saying goes, an image is value a thousand phrases, so… right here’s an image.

And if the image will get me a thousand phrases, a video have to be what, a billion?

The ultimate of this occasion at 2021 Olympic Trials was anticipated to be thrilling. It pit the expertise of Melanie Margalis and Madisyn Cox towards the up-and-comers Torri Huske, Alex Walsh, and Kate Douglass. For these of you unable to observe the video, I’ll set the stage a bit, because it solely helps to indicate the place the occasion is now.

Huske, who shocked the Viewers, America, World together with her 100 fly earlier in this system, was out like a bat and held a lead of over half a second on Douglass. Huske nonetheless led on the 100 mark by practically three-quarters of a second however over Walsh, who we now have come to know as having a terrific center 100. She took over the lead within the breaststroke however was out-split by Cox, who continued to cost into the freestyle.

Nonetheless, Cox struggled within the closing meters, and Douglass, who closed in 31.04, caught her to take over second place. Walsh completed in 2:09.30, Douglass simply behind in 2:09.32, and Cox in an agonizing third, simply .03 away from sole second place, in a time of two:09.34.

AWalsh with Medals

Since then, it has been the Walsh and Douglass present. The pair went on to win the silver and bronze medals in Tokyo and have been the one two swimmers atop the rostrum at NCAAs within the occasion, exhibiting utter dominance over their competitors.

Walsh constructed upon her dominance over the home subject within the 200 IM the following summer time. On the 2022 Group Trials, Walsh set a brand new US Open file, hitting the wall in 2:07.84. Two months later, in Budapest, she claimed victory in 2:07.13, one in all three gold medals she received on the meet.  Quick ahead 12 months, and Walsh entered as the favourite to repeat as the highest US girl within the 200 IM.

Nonetheless, Douglass returned to the occasion and shattered the US Open file by swimming a time of two:07.09, breaking Walsh’s barely one-year-old file of two:07.89. In Fukuoka, the pair have been close to their greatest. Walsh had the lead, with only a 50 left, however Douglass got here again on her and the sphere, swimming a 29.83 final 50 to take the win 2:07.07, with Walsh taking the silver in 2:07.97. Yu Yiting, the bronze medalist, was near a second behind Walsh, ending in 2:08.74.

Within the intervening months, Douglass and Walsh have continued to flex their dominance over their home competitors. Douglass swam to a different gold medal on the 2024 Doha Worlds, placing up the quickest time on the planet and a brand new private greatest of two:07.05. Walsh swam 2:07.63 on the Knoxville Professional Swim Sequence in January, a brand new private greatest, and carried that momentum to the NCAAs, the place she turned simply the second girl in historical past underneath the 1:50 barrier, becoming a member of Douglass, her coaching associate.

Since Worlds and NCAAs, the pair have swum at two meets, the PSS in San Antonio and the NCAP Elite Qualifier two weeks in the past. Douglass didn’t contest the 200 IM in San Antonio, however Walsh positioned 2nd in a time of two:08.60. The pair completed of their acquainted order on the latter meet, with Douglass stopping the clock in 2:07.76 and Walsh getting underneath 2:08 once more, as she completed in 2:07.99.

The pair are the one two lively Individuals who’ve been underneath 2:08 this season; actually, they’re the one two lively Individuals who’ve been underneath that barrier because the pair have led American IMers over the previous three years chasing, however not but reaching the legendary mark of two:06.15 set by Ariana Kukors again in 2009.

Younger Gun

Leah Hayes 2023 World Juniors courtesy Marcus Chen Images

When Douglass opted to not swim the 200 IM in 2022, a niche naturally appeared. Diving into the hole and throwing herself into the highlight was then 16-year-old Leah Hayes. Hayes certified in second behind Alex Walsh in 2:09.99, making her first worldwide group. Hayes would then enhance that point to 2:08.91, a time that received her a bronze medal.

Since then, nonetheless, Hayes has struggled to repeat that kind, as she has not damaged 2:10 because the summer time of 2022. She missed out on qualifying for the 2023 group, inserting 4th in a time of two:10.42, however did signify the USA on the Junior Worlds that summer time. In Netanya, she swept each IMs, successful the 200 in 2:10.24, in addition to successful a person bronze within the 200 free. This lengthy course season, Hayes has solely swum the occasion twice, together with her greatest being a 2:10.62 on the Westmont PSS meet.

Within the Psych Sheet, Hayes finds herself a bit remoted because the quantity 4 seed. Entered with a time of two:10.03, she is over a second and a half behind the #3 seed and over two seconds forward of the #5 seed. Nonetheless, Hayes, who’s heading to UVA this fall, might have her probabilities enhance within the occasion after the meet begins as two of the swimmers forward of her should decide about swimming a troublesome double.

To 50 or to not 50

Outdoors of the Douglass/Walsh pair, solely two Individuals have been underneath 2:10 this season, and one in all them, Regan Smith (2:09.05), is just not entered within the occasion. This leaves Huske with the most effective likelihood of breaking apart the UVA dominance.

Torri Huske (photograph: Jack Spitser)

In 2021, because the video above exhibits, Huske had a powerful entrance half to her race on the Olympic Trials however was actually let down by her breaststroke (39.30) as she plummeted from 1st on the 100 to 4th on the 150 flip and finally completed 4th in a time of two:10.38. Huske stepped away from the occasion for a short time, however has seen a resurgence as of late.

Taking a redshirt from Stanford, Huske has been focussing solely on lengthy programs and has hit three private bests on the final three meets she has swam. On the US Open, she swam 2:09.10 to take third, and three months later broke 2:09 for the primary time, successful the occasion on the Westmont PSS in 2:08.83. A month later, in San Antonio, Huske knocked much more time without work, swimming a brand new private greatest of two:08.47, beating Alex Walsh, who was 2nd in 2:08.60.

Regardless of Huske’s enhancements, particularly within the breaststroke, she cut up 37.80 in San Antonio; she shall be confronted with a troublesome determination as she faces a possible back-to-back night swim.

The semifinals of the ladies’s 50 free are slated to happen proper earlier than the finals of the ladies’s 200 IM, and the multi-talented Huske finds herself because the #4 seed within the 50. She is just not alone, nonetheless, within the conundrum, as Douglass is the highest seed in each occasions. The 2 occasions have been on separate days in 2021, and whereas the finals of each have been in the identical session on the 2023 Nationals, they have been roughly 45 minutes aside.

We’re going to function underneath the idea that each Huske and Douglass are going to swim the 200 IM however we’ll replace if we hear any rumors in any other case.

100 Badger-sized gators or one gator-sized badger

With the highest 4 all having a connection to Virginia, with Huske calling the state residence, the following 4 seeds within the occasion are tied to 2 completely different states: Florida and Wisconsin (therefore the subheading).

Bella Sims (photograph: Jack Spitser)

The Fifth and Eighth seeds within the occasion are a pair of Florida Gators: #5 Bella Sims and #8 Isabel Ivey. Sims is a human Swiss Military Knife as she is entered in 11 occasions, which equals out to all the pieces apart from the 50 free and the breaststroke. Sims entered with a time of two:12.15, which comes from her Fifth-place end within the occasion final summer time. Sims is a query mark within the occasion, nonetheless as she has not recorded a time within the occasion this season. In yards, for the Florida Gators, she solely swam the occasion as soon as, albeit swimming to a brand new PB and SEC title in a time of 1:51.86.

Ivey, who completed runner-up at SECs and at NCAAs, the latter in a brand new PB of 1:51.96, is the Eighth seed. Ivey completed sixteenth within the occasion final summer time in a time of two:16.50 after tying for Eighth place within the prelims (2:14.23) and subsequently shedding the swim-off. Later that summer time on the Professional Swim Sequence Championship, Ivey popped off a 2:12.57 to position Fifth and third amongst Individuals. This season, she has only one recorded time, however its a speedy 2:12.76 from the Atlanta Traditional.

Forward of her on the PSS Championship final summer time have been a pair of Wisconsin Badgers: #6 seed Phoebe Bacon (2:12.18) and #7 seed Beata Nelson (2:12.38). Nelson, the extra skilled of the 2, positioned seventh within the finals of the Olympic Trials in 2021 in 2:11.96 and shall be trying to repeat the feat. The American Document holder within the 100 SCM IM, Nelson has nice turns and underwaters, which helped her win three NCAA titles on the 2019 Championships, as she received the 200 IM and each backstrokes.

Nonetheless, in an extended course pool with half the partitions, Nelson struggles a bit towards the competitors. Additionally entered within the 100 fly (Eighth – 57.97),  50 free (twentieth – 25.11), and 100 free (tenth – 53.97), the 200 IM is her highest individual-ranked occasion. She holds a private greatest of two:11.55 and has been bouncing round 2:12 this season, so she might be on monitor for a terrific swim, however she will definitely must be quite a bit sooner to have a shot of qualifying within the occasion.

Bacon, a fellow Badger, didn’t compete within the 200 IM on the 2021 Trials, as a substitute specializing in the again and fly occasions. After ending 2nd within the 200 again in Omaha and Fifth within the finals in Tokyo, Bacon received a silver medal on the 2022 Budapest Worlds.

The 200 IM is comparatively new to her occasion program, popping up final yr for the primary time at a significant qualifying meet. She positioned Sixth within the remaining in a time of two:12.27, a then-personal greatest, however in San Antonio, she swam a brand new PB of two:12.18. The 200 again stays her greatest path to qualifying for the Olympics once more, and with the finals of the 200 again occurring on the identical day because the prelims of the 200 IM, she might solely think about the backstroke. Or she might desire to have a morning swim, much like NCAAs, so we should wait and see.

2:12 to Finals

Final summer time, 2:14.23 tied for Eighth in prelims; nonetheless, it seems to be prefer it’ll take not less than a 2:12 to make the minimize. The highest 11 entries are all underneath 2:13, and the highest 21 are sub 2:14. Abby Harter, who received that swim-off and earned her place within the A-final final summer time, enters because the tenth seed, simply .03 behind Kelly Pash and .22 forward of Justina Kozan.

Harter, who represented the US on the Pan-Am Video games, positioned Sixth in Santiago in a time of two:17.95 and has solely been as quick as 2:16.77 this season, however to be truthful, has appeared to transition to a give attention to the butterfly occasions.

Pash was additionally on the Pan-Am video games and picked up medals within the fly occasions; he’s the ninth seed. She positioned Sixth at NCAAs within the occasion and has been hovering round her private greatest, swimming 2:13.33 in Knoxville this previous January. Pash didn’t swim the occasion on the 2023 Nationals, nor did she on the 2021 Trials, so her participation within the occasion is unsure.

Kozan, the final of the sub 2:13 entries, is entered together with her U23 LEN successful time of two:12.98. Kozan earned her spot on the meet courtesy of her ninth place final summer time (2:13.23). Kozan has a private greatest of two:11.55, however that dates again to 2019, and like Pash, her participation on this occasion is unsure. She has solely swum it as soon as this season, swimming 2:20.25 in April, and as a substitute seems to be placing extra focus into the 400 IM.

If there’s a flurry of scratches within the occasion, some 2:13s might squeak by into the ultimate, with Zoie Hartman (twelfth – 2:13.07) and Caroline Bricker (thirteenth – 2:13.18) main a good pack.

Kennedy Noble, too, might be one to make the most of some scratches. She positioned twelfth in 2023 (2:13.94) and received the bronze at Pan-Ams (2:14.19) forward of Harter. Noble, like many above her, might have a greater likelihood of creating the finals within the backstroke occasions, nonetheless. She is seeded twentieth on this however 4th within the 200 again, and the finals of the 200 again are on the identical day because the prelims and semis of the 200 IM.

Determination Time (or is it?)

Because the 200 IM prelims are on day 7, quite a bit can occur within the previous days, and with so many potential doubles, some scratches are certain to occur, so take that under consideration in your Choose’ems. I could resort to a crystal ball in figuring out mine.

If Douglass swims this, and I feel she’s going to, then it’s a clear-cut Douglass and Walsh atop the sphere. Regardless of being flush with worldwide {hardware} and being the prohibitive favorites, the pair nonetheless have to put up quick occasions, as they might discover themselves on the periphery of the medal dialog ought to they not be near Kaylee McKeown’s current 2:06.63.

As for the High 8, Douglass has to get the sting over Walsh; she has been sooner this season and has a sooner private greatest. Huske is the pure third  (if she swims) and Hayes 4th. After that, it will get a bit murky, with Sims being a giant query mark. She solely swam it twice within the lead-up to 2023, and with solely two lengthy course meets his season underneath her belt, she couldn’t swim all of her 11 occasions at them, so which may not be the most effective indicator of her precise occasion schedule. I feel Sims is more likely to swim and, based mostly on her 200 IM yards efficiency, might problem for 4th with Hayes.

As for the Sixth-Eighth, I feel Ivey goes to have a superb swim and leap forward of the Badgers. After touchdown in Florida, she’s hit new PBs this season within the 200 IM and 100 free (SCY) in addition to within the 200 free (LCM), so a brand new greatest on this occasion doesn’t appear that farfetched. Bacon, too, has had a powerful season, however I feel her focus has naturally been extra on the backstroke.

SWIMSWAM’S PICKS

Darkish Horse: Lucy Bell (Stanford) & Josephine Fuller (Tennessee) – With two of the highest 4 seeds going through a possible double and Sims perhaps having the 200 IM 800 free again to again, I felt two darkish horses have been mandatory. Of those two, Bell appears the most effective poised to make the leap. Regardless of being the 14th seed (2:13.28), she’s eleventh amongst Individuals this season and Eighth amongst these entered. Her season greatest of two:13.28 is her private greatest and was achieved only a month in the past on the LA Invite. And whereas she is seeded behind her teammate Caroline Bricker, she bought the higher of her at NCAAs, the place Bell completed 4th to Bricker’s tenth. I feel Bell has a powerful shot of leapfrogging loads of these forward of her, however it stays to be seen if it’s sufficient to interrupt into the highest 8, who all are within the vary of being sub 2:12.

Fuller completed forward of them each, inserting third within the 200 IM at NCAAs. Over the course of 1 season, she dropped two seconds within the occasion, and if she might replicate that kind within the lengthy course pool, her Twenty second-seeded 2:14.01 might flip right into a 2:12 and put her identify into the dialog of creating the finals. 



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