It’s not fairly proper to say that Fernando Cruz was a late-blooming prospect. That may indicate that he was a prospect, and he wasn’t, not less than not likely. He was picked within the sixth spherical of the 2007 draft as a hitter, however by no means made it out of A-ball in 4 years. He tried pitching after that, and it labored, however not sufficient for the Royals to maintain him. He kicked across the minors, indy ball, and the winter league circuit for greater than a decade. He performed in Puerto Rico, Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, and Mexico. He was dwelling a full baseball life, and nearly completely exterior of affiliated ball. Over the 2021-2022 winter, although, Cruz placed on a present, racking up a 2.03 ERA with 81 strikeouts in 61 innings of labor throughout three leagues and the Caribbean Collection.
You’ll be able to have massive league potential with out pitching in affiliated ball, and the Reds noticed it. They signed Cruz to a minor league deal earlier than the 2022 season and despatched him straight to Triple-A, the place he was top-of-the-line relievers within the minors instantly. He earned a promotion to the massive leagues that September, and he hasn’t appeared again since. Now, at 34, he’s off to top-of-the-line begins of any reliever in baseball relating to lacking bats. It’s a exceptional story, and he’s a participant price celebrating. How on the earth did he sneak previous everybody for therefore lengthy, and the way is he thriving now? I hope I’ll be capable to let you know.
The very first thing that jumps off the web page if you take a look at Cruz’s statistical document is strikeout fee. He has a profession 36.5% mark within the majors, the ninth-best mark all time for pitchers with not less than 90 innings. Certain, 9 of the highest 10 are at the moment lively pitchers, and the all-time strikeout fee leaderboard is overwhelmingly tilted towards fashionable gamers (shout out to Diamond Pipkins, who struck out 19 batters in 15.2 innings for the 1931 Cleveland Cubs for cracking the highest 25). However even when that is only a listing of efficient fashionable pitchers, Cruz is on that listing!
The subsequent factor that jumps off the web page is that he throws a splitter 44% of the time. It’s not likely a change of tempo; it’s simply his tempo. There’s a easy and efficient plan at work right here. Early rely? Cruz goes to throw you a fastball or cutter, one thing that you just would possibly take for a strike or foul off. Behind within the rely? He’ll keep it up, tilting extra closely towards his fastball as he will get additional behind. However when he will get forward, it’s splittin’ time, and also you don’t wish to attain splittin’ time in case you’re hittin’.
An 0-1 rely? Cruz throws his splitter 69% of the time. 0-2? We’re speaking 96% of the time; you would possibly as properly throw the remainder of his arsenal out and solely search for that. He throws it 94% of the time in 1-2 counts, 70% of the time in 2-2 counts, even 67% of the time in 3-2 counts. If there’s a strikeout on the road, you’re nearly definitely going to see a splitter. Or, properly, you’re going to get a splitter. I’m undecided Joc Pederson ever noticed this one:
I didn’t choose that pitch accidentally. That’s the archetypical Cruz splitter. It’s a strike out of his arms however turns right into a ball, and there’s basically no strategy to get a bat on it. Opponents have swung at 40 of Cruz’s splitters out of the strike zone. They’ve missed 34 of them. Nobody in baseball has a nastier offspeed pitch. Truthfully, nobody has a nastier chase pitch, interval, although Nick Lodolo’s curveball not less than comes shut within the knowledge.
OK, that’s neat, however isn’t it a bit small of a pattern for us mathematically inclined sorts? 40 pitches? That’s what number of Lance Lynn throws in a tough inning. We’re gonna want extra knowledge. However excellent news: The additional knowledge just about agrees with the 2024-only model. Precisely two pitchers are lacking bats extra continuously with their out-of-zone offspeed pitches over the previous three years: Félix Bautista and Kodai Senga. That’s top-of-the-line closers in baseball and a man whose splitter is so ridiculous it acquired its personal nickname. Yeah, I feel that’ll do.
If I have been a hitter, I’d wish to assume that I might give you a plan to counter this assault. This isn’t a kind of circumstances the place a pitcher throws largely secondaries, however “largely” means 60%. Guys like which might be susceptible to sneak a fastball by you in case you sit on their flexible stuff. However there’s no actual risk with Cruz. In 1-2 counts, he’s thrown 29 splitters and two fastballs. He’s solely thrown a single 0-2 fastball. There’s no subtlety right here.
If there’s a bind for hitters, it’s determining whether or not the splitter they get shall be within the zone or within the dust. He’s working a 30% zone fee with the pitch to this point this yr, and that’s constant no matter rely. The “all the time take” plan isn’t computerized when Cruz is succesful, not less than sometimes, of touchdown one for a strike.
However, swinging hasn’t been an excellent counterstrategy. They’re swinging at 77% of Cruz’s in-zone splitters, a good fee. In actual fact, they’re in all probability swinging an excessive amount of; that’s roughly league common, they usually’re chasing 45% of the time, a scarily excessive quantity.
The worst of it for hitters is that these in-zone swings haven’t accomplished them any good. They’re nonetheless swinging and lacking very often, a 3rd of the time this yr and 45% of the time all through his main league profession. Once they do make contact, it’s been fairly poor. Cruz has given up precisely one homer on a splitter in his profession, and satirically sufficient that pitch was exterior the strike zone. It’s only a exhausting one to sq. up; to wit, hitters have squared up six of their 70 swings on the pitch this yr (thanks Statcast!). Even after they do make contact, they’re squaring up lower than 1 / 4 of it. For no matter it’s price, league common in opposition to all splitters is 33.3%.
In different phrases, Cruz’s splitter is without doubt one of the pitches in baseball that hitters can do the least with. They hardly ever ever make contact, they usually do little injury even after they do. The mixture of excessive swing fee – batters swing at roughly 50% of Cruz’s splitters – and poor outcomes on swings is extraordinarily uncommon. The pitch is in elite territory – we’re speaking Yu Darvish’s knuckle curve, Edwin Díaz’s slider, Michael King’s changeup, issues like that. Pitchers merely don’t garner that mixture of frequent and fruitless swings.
Time for a fast apart: I’ve watched a variety of Cruz attempting to determine what makes this pitch so devastating. I didn’t come away with a variety of solutions. It seems to be vaguely like a variety of different splitters that aren’t practically so good. It’s the slowest splitter within the league by a hair, however it doesn’t dip as a lot as you would possibly anticipate as a result of what little spin he places on the ball imparts some raise. His launch level isn’t significantly unusual. He will get good extension, however nothing outrageous. I feel there’s some deception occurring in his supply, and that hitters aren’t selecting it up out of his hand consequently, however I actually can’t work out why from watching him pitch.
So is Cruz one of the best reliever in baseball or one thing? Properly, no. He’s completely maxing out this pitch, to be clear. It’s top-of-the-line pitches in baseball, and so he simply throws it on a regular basis. Nobody throws splitters extra continuously than Cruz does. Few pitchers throw non-fastballs that continuously, they usually’re just about all sliders which have in-zone utility. However there’s a weak spot to his plan: He can’t throw the dang factor for a strike.
That 30% zone fee I used to be speaking about is fairly dangerous. It’s not final in baseball, however it’s 497th out of 519 secondary pitches which have been thrown not less than 40 instances. There are some actually good pitches in that space – Corbin Burnes’s slider, Zack Wheeler’s curveball, Luis Castillo’s changeup, Framber Valdez’s curveball – however these are pure out pitches and a part of bigger arsenals, not first-and-only choices.
The clear counter to this all-splitters strategy is simply to swing much less. It’s exhausting to carry again, clearly. However hitters are more and more managing it. Cruz has an 11.6% stroll fee for his main league profession, and it’s an ugly 15.5% this yr after an unsightly three-walk outing on Monday. Give him an opportunity, and Cruz will put a runner on.
Outrageously, hitters don’t appear to care. I perceive defending the plate with two strikes, in fact. However let’s put it this manner: Cruz has thrown 63 pitches in 0-1 and 1-1 counts this yr; 40 of these pitches have been splitters. Batters are swinging at 52.5% of these splitters and 56.5% of the opposite stuff. That is simply an outrageously dangerous technique. The swings have been extremely unprofitable for batters. The takes have been extremely worthwhile. Cruz is barely throwing 30% of his pitches in these two counts within the strike zone — four-seamers and cutters additionally included. My daring technique proposal: Don’t swing in any respect in these counts till he adjusts.
The Diamondbacks kind of did this to Cruz on Monday. The three batters who walked solely swung after they have been forward within the rely or with two strikes. They didn’t let Cruz play his regular recreation of getting within the driver’s seat and breaking off splitters over and over. His backup plan of fastballs and cutters isn’t horrible or something, however they’re common pitches, whereas his splitter is otherworldly. It’s a intelligent protection in opposition to a pitcher who is totally maxing out his potential to get outs.
Sooner or later, there shall be an adjustment to the adjustment. If hitters are simply going to go away the bat on their shoulders in counts the place Cruz needs to throw splitters, he’ll have to begin mixing in more durable stuff. Truthfully, I’m nonetheless form of mystified that he’s been capable of throw 70% splitters in 0-1 counts and get away with it; you simply don’t see numbers like that. If I have been a hitter, I would even maintain the bat on my shoulders in two-strike counts. Certain, he would possibly land one for a strike, however it’s not like I’d’ve made contact with it anyway. Apart from, the almost certainly situation is a pitch within the dust.
For now, that’s theoretical. Hitters are swinging out of their sneakers after they shouldn’t be. Cruz is getting away with it. Or, properly, he’s form of getting away with it. He does have a 4.24 ERA on the season, although his FIP (2.07), xFIP (.206), and xERA (3.13) are all much better than that. The Reds appear to assume he’s good; he’s pitching in massive spots, with the very best entry leverage on the staff. And if hitters don’t smart as much as his recreation, I feel he’ll proceed to reach these conditions – he already has 9 shutdowns on the season, most on the staff.
May all of it be an phantasm ultimately? May hitters determine him out tomorrow? I assume so, positive. However even when that’s the case — and I don’t assume it’s — what a fabulous story. Cruz performed in additional leagues than most baseball followers can title. He stored toiling, ready for an opportunity. And when he acquired that likelihood, he turned it into gold. Now he’s a wonderful main league reliever, and has top-of-the-line pitches in all of baseball. How cool is that?
OK, wonderful, one final bonus. Pederson struck out once more on a Cruz splitter Monday night time. His response tells you all you should find out about what it’s wish to attempt to hit this silly pitch.
