The $1 million, Grade 1 Whitney Stakes Saturday at Saratoga lives as much as its historic billing in having a robust subject of 12 entered, with the winner incomes an automated beginning spot within the Longines Breeders’ Cup Traditional this fall along with $550,000 in earnings.
Main the sector by way of earnings thus far is Nationwide Treasure (over $5.2 million), who has received 4 of 13 races and enters off a win over Saratoga’s monitor within the Grade 1 Hill ‘n’ Dale Metropolitan Handicap slightly below two months in the past. Two of the opposite 10 horses have earned much less cash of their careers however have double the variety of profession wins as Nationwide Treasure and should be thought-about strongly. The primary of these is Skippylongstocking, who received the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap in April. The opposite is Put up Time, who was second behind Nationwide Treasure within the Metropolitan however who received the Grade 2 Carter Stakes Introduced by NYRA Bets simply previous to that.
There’s extra expertise on this full subject, as First Mission received the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes Introduced by TwinSpires in Might and Vibrant Future received the Grade 1 Jockey Membership Gold Cup Stakes final summer time at Saratoga. An up-and-coming star could also be Arthur’s Journey, probably the most flippantly raced horse within the Whitney subject who has three wins and two runner-up finishes in six races and will likely be making his first begin in a stakes race Saturday. Disarm has earned simply over $1 million thus far, together with his largest effort coming final July at Saratoga when second within the Grade 1 Travers Stakes. Il Miracolo is approaching the three-quarters of one million mark in profession earnings, together with his greatest effort this yr a victory within the Grade 3 Ghostzapper Stakes in March, a race fellow Whitney starter Tumbarumba completed second in. Again in January, Tumbarumba received the Grade 3 Fred W. Hooper Stakes Introduced by Whispering Angel. Warrior Johny hasn’t had success in three stakes races in his profession however enters the Whitney off a robust win over Saratoga’s monitor final month. Crupi received the Grade 2 Suburban Stakes in June at Saratoga earlier than a runner-up effort behind the incomparable Subsequent within the Grade 2 Brooklyn Stakes 4 weeks in the past. Cost It received the 2022 Suburban however has not completed higher than third in 5 races since then.
Evaluation and Contenders:
Merely put, if the race and energy Arthur’s Journey put forth in his most up-to-date begin on June 7 is plausible, he can submit the upset on this yr’s Whitney Stakes. I feel that may occur, contemplating that in 4 of his different 5 races thus far, Arthur’s Journey received or completed second, and he’s 3-for-3 on quick tracks at a mile or extra on filth in his profession. As with most of the 4-year-olds on this yr’s Whitney subject, Arthur’s Journey could not but have run his quickest race, and that’s saying one thing contemplating his final effort earned a 115 Equibase Pace Determine, which is the very best last-race determine amongst any horse within the Whitney. Put in perspective, Arthur’s Journey June 7 effort was quicker than Nationwide Treasure’s win within the Metropolitan Handicap sooner or later later at Saratoga, which earned a 110 determine.
Arthur’s Journey had been away from the races from February 2023 till March of this yr, but when he returned he received as if he had by no means been away, incomes a 96 determine. After a disappointing ninth-of-12 end two months later, Arthur’s Journey ran quick from begin to end in his win at Saratoga in June, being eased up within the final 110 yards after reaching an insurmountable margin and coasting to a 12 ¾-length size win. That was on the distance of 1 ¼ miles, so his skill to run the identical, or higher, on the Whitney’s 1 1/8-mile distance is of no concern. To point out he’s nonetheless in prime form, Arthur’s Journey put in a half-mile drill a couple of days in the past which was the fourth better of 57 on the distance on the day.
One other attention-grabbing word about Arthur’s Journey is that final yr when Vibrant Future received the Jockey Membership Gold Cup, that colt was a 4-year-old making his seventh profession begin, which is similar age and complete begins as Arthur’s Journey is and has on this yr’s Whitney. Corridor of Fame coach Invoice Mott amazingly has by no means received this race, though his starters have received eight of 35 Grade 1 filth route stakes previously three years. Arthur’s Journey offers Mott the prospect so as to add the Whitney Stakes to his superior résumé.
Vibrant Future, considered one of three entrants from the potent barn of Todd Pletcher (the opposite two being Crupi and Cost It), has received 5 of 9 profession begins. He actually peaked presently final yr in his sixth and seventh profession begins, successful a 1 1/8-mile Saratoga allowance race in July after which taking the Jockey Membership Gold Cup with a career-best 112 Equibase Pace Determine. Two months later within the Breeders’ Cup Traditional, Vibrant Future discovered himself too far again within the early phases when 10th of 12 however managed to move half the sector and was overwhelmed slightly below 4 lengths on the finish, incomes a 111 determine. After that, he was rested till June when he was entered within the Salvator Mile Stakes, possible with the Whitney because the goal for his second begin of the yr. Within the Salvator Mile, he rallied from sixth to win going away and earned a 104 determine that he’s extremely possible to enhance upon in his second begin off an extended layoff and in addition again over the monitor the place he has received each of his begins.
Nationwide Treasure is one other horse whose coach, Bob Baffert, determined to run over Saratoga’s monitor to set him up for his greatest within the Whitney. When he returned from 3 ½ months off within the Metropolitan Handicap in June, Nationwide Treasure needed to battle for early supremacy within the opening quarter-mile however then received into a gradual stride and drew off to win by greater than six lengths, incomes a 110 determine that he’s possible to enhance upon in his second begin off the longer layoff. Final summer time, Nationwide Treasure ran poorly when fifth within the Travers Stakes, however in his 2024 debut he received the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes Introduced by Baccarat on the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Whitney, incomes a 114 determine that’s ok to probably win this race if repeated. Though Nationwide Treasure earned his first two wins, together with within the 2023 Preakness Stakes, main from begin to end, he demonstrated the flexibility to calm down off the tempo when second within the early phases of the Pegasus, and people could be the ways employed on this yr’s Whitney if Junior Alvarado and Arthur’s Journey go for the lead from the beginning, a technique that proved so profitable in his most up-to-date win.
There are a selection of different actually good horses within the subject. A kind of is First Mission, who upset badly because the odds-on favourite on June 29 within the 1 1/8-mile Stephen Foster Stakes however received the Alysheba Stakes and Essex Handicap back-to-back previous to that. He earned 115 figures in every of these races, which might make him aggressive within the Whitney if repeated. Skippylongstocking earned a 114 determine successful the Oaklawn Handicap on the distance of the Whitney in April but additionally underachieved within the Foster when ending third with no excuse, though it should be famous he solely missed second by a head after fading from second to fourth on the far flip. Put up Time has solely completed additional again than second one time in 11 races and exhibits up each time he runs, together with his greatest efforts incomes 116 figures in January and February of this yr. Then there’s Warrior Johny, more likely to go to submit at excessive odds. Though he’s winless in three stakes tries, he sports activities a two-for-three document at Saratoga, with each wins coming on the Whitney’s 1 1/8-mile journey, the newest simply three weeks in the past with a 113 determine.
The remainder of the Whitney Discipline, with their greatest Equibase Pace Figures, is Cost It (114), Crupi (109), Disarm (107), Il Miracolo (108) and Tumbarumba (108).
Win Contenders, in desire order:
