Almost two months into the 2024 MLB season, three Nationwide League powerhouses are rising on the high of the standings.
It is no shock that these groups are the Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies — however Philly having one of the best report of the three just isn’t what anybody predicted going into the marketing campaign.
Have the Phillies handed the Braves and Dodgers because the NL’s crew to beat? And what should every do from right here on out to be one of the best of the group when it issues most? Our MLB specialists weigh in.
Which of the NL’s Huge Three has impressed you most to date?
Buster Olney: The Phillies have performed a comparatively simple schedule, however they’ve dominated — with their beginning rotation, bullpen and deep lineup. The Braves’ offense has clearly been an issue, and the Dodgers will want extra from the underside half of their batting order. However Philadelphia is one of the best all-around crew to date. Will probably be fascinating to see how the Phillies fare as their schedule toughens and so they start taking part in postseason contenders with star-studded rotations. As one of many Braves stated to me Saturday: “It seems like we’re seeing a number of aces to date.”
Jeff Passan: The final time Philadelphia performed a crew that’s at the moment over .500 was March 31. In order improbable as its MLB-best report is, the nod right here goes to the Dodgers, who’ve scored extra runs and allowed fewer than the Phillies. Los Angeles’ offense is wondrous, main MLB in most classes of consequence, and its pitching is fairly improbable too, with Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto taking part in co-aces properly. And L.A.’s reduction pitching as a possible weak spot? The Dodgers’ 2.99 bullpen ERA is one of the best within the NL.
David Schoenfield: Look, if Ranger Suarez retains placing up numbers from the useless ball period, the Phillies are going to be in rivalry for greatest report with that one-two-three punch of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Suarez. The offense has been higher than final yr, as nicely. However I am sticking with the Dodgers due to the a number of one-two punches they possess: Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts on offense and Glasnow and Yamamoto within the rotation. Walker Buehler, who simply spun six scoreless innings in his third begin of the season, and Gavin Stone are good sidekicks to Glasnow and Yamamoto. The Dodgers’ bullpen ERA can be greater than a run decrease than that of the Phillies (though, to be truthful, the again finish of the Philly pen has been high quality).
Alden Gonzalez: For as dominant because the Dodgers have regarded and as spectacular because the Phillies’ begin has been, let’s not overlook what the Braves are doing. Spencer Strider, their ace, is out for the yr. Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson and Austin Riley, their three greatest gamers, have principally been league-average hitters. And but the Braves are performing largely as we might have anticipated. Reynaldo Lopez and Chris Sale, two query marks of their rotation going into the yr, have been actually good. And it has been Marcell Ozuna and Travis d’Arnaud who’ve achieved many of the heavy lifting offensively. The Braves’ offense will likely be higher. Quite a bit higher. They’ve one other gear left in them due to it. And that is scary for the remainder of the game.
What has shocked you most?
Olney: The Braves’ run manufacturing has been shockingly mediocre for a crew that completed No. 1 total in runs and house runs final yr. They’ve had a few of their regulars impacted by accidents — Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies and, extra lately, Riley — however there have been some actual struggles, as nicely. Acuna is increasing the strike zone greater than ever. And earlier than he received harm, Riley was going by way of his standard early-season slog. signal is that Olson is lastly seeing a few of his hard-hit fee translating.
Passan: Atlanta’s tepid offense. The Braves returned the whole thing of the crew that set offensive information final yr, and so they’ve been outscored this season by the Boston Purple Sox, Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Angels. Most stunning: Of the 166 gamers certified for the batting title, Acuna ranks 138th with a .333 slugging proportion. One yr after slugging .501 as a crew, the Braves are at .406; and for those who subtract Ozuna, who has been essential to holding the offense afloat, it could be .381.
Schoenfield: Suarez has been completely phenomenal, going 8-0 with a 1.37 ERA in his first 9 begins whereas holding batters to a .171 common. It is one of many nice begins in MLB historical past. The final pitcher to win a minimum of eight of his first 9 begins with an ERA underneath 1.50 was Jake Arrieta in 2016. Earlier than that, it was Ubaldo Jimenez in 2010. And earlier than that, it was Pedro Martinez in 1997. Suarez is considered one of simply 10 pitchers to tug off the feat since 1920. He’s throwing 5 completely different pitches a minimum of 10% of the time, together with his curveball and changeup each registering whiff charges at about 30%. He is not overpowering, however this has been old-school mastery of deception — and it has been lovely to observe.
Gonzalez: Let’s not neglect what’s actually stunning in all this: Betts is all of a sudden a shortstop — for arguably one of the best crew within the majors. And it does not seem like he is shifting off that place, both. Bear in mind: It is a 31-year-old, six-time Gold Glove proper fielder who deliberate to change to second base full time heading into 2024 then transitioned to shortstop — the hardest place to play, exterior of catcher — in spring coaching. He has began greater than three-quarters of the Dodgers’ video games there this season. Has he been nice? No. Has he been satisfactory? Little doubt. Has he improved? Completely. And he has achieved it whereas hitting like an MVP.
Which of the three groups has probably the most obtrusive want for enchancment within the coming months?
Olney: You’d assume that ultimately the Braves are going to begin to hit; there’s simply an excessive amount of of a monitor report in Acuna, Riley, Albies and Michael Harris II to imagine this collective droop goes to final all yr. I feel there’s extra uncertainty with the underside half of the Dodgers’ lineup. Is Chris Taylor going to bounce again? It is unclear. And Gavin Lux, after lacking all of final season? It is laborious to say. Will James Outman return to the large leagues and shake off the early issues? Undecided. However a method or one other, the Dodgers will discover options earlier than the commerce deadline, both internally or externally.
Passan: The Phillies’ pitching has been spectacular, and their infield, even with Trea Turner on the injured listing, is phenomenal. The outfield, nonetheless, is getting into its seventh week of mediocrity. Brandon Marsh is a stable participant, however the Nick Castellanos–Johan Rojas–Cristian Pache trio garnering the vast majority of outfield at-bats has been downright unhealthy offensively and middling defensively. With no assistance on the rapid horizon — Gabriel Rincones remains to be a yr away from the majors — addressing the outfield within the commerce market is a should for Philadelphia.
Schoenfield: I might point out the Phillies’ outfield, as nicely. Rojas was a minimum of alleged to run down every little thing in heart discipline, however that hasn’t occurred, both. The Phillies might slide Marsh again to heart discipline, however utility man Whit Merrifield does not seem like a solution for left discipline, as he simply cannot drive the ball in any respect anymore. Kyle Schwarber again to left? Appears unlikely, as placing Schwarber and Castellanos as regulars within the outfield corners hurts the protection. So, I am with Jeff: A commerce is wanting obligatory.
Gonzalez: The Nos. 1 to five hitters within the Dodgers’ lineup lead the majors with a mixed .918 OPS. The Nos. 6 to 9 hitters? A .576 OPS, worse than each crew besides the lowly Miami Marlins. If Andy Pages continues to hit and Jason Heyward — who lately returned from a month-plus stint on the IL — produces like he did final yr, it will largely be rendered moot. However Pages has drawn 4 walks in 123 plate appearances, and Heyward had an adjusted OPS of 65 from 2021 to 2022. And the likes of Outman, Taylor and Lux have not proven many indicators of busting out of their dreadful early-season slumps. If this continues, the Dodgers — extra “championship or bust” than they’ve ever been underneath president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman — will definitely must commerce for a minimum of one outfielder. And so they may also want a center infielder.
Which would be the crew to beat come October?
Olney: The Phillies. They’ve arguably the premier ace in Wheeler — perhaps one of the best pitcher on the planet at the moment, with Gerrit Cole down — and are working with productive remorse from their NLCS loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks final yr, when their hitters expanded the zone and former nearer Craig Kimbrel misplaced leads. The Dodgers are the extra dynamic crew, however till we see an improve in efficiency or within the roster, the Phillies have the group greatest constructed to win in October.
Passan: For all the disillusionment over Atlanta’s bats, its pitching has been distinctive. Sale seems like a major model of himself. Max Fried and Charlie Morton have postseason bona fides. Braves pitchers have the bottom common exit velocity allowed by almost 1 mph and have allowed 60 fewer hard-hit balls than the second-best crew. The offense is certain to proper itself, and with that form of pitching — even with out Strider — the Braves have the products to outlive the NL gauntlet.
Schoenfield: I will go together with the Phillies as nicely for a similar causes Buster outlined, primarily that Wheeler is the one starter I might belief most in October from these three groups. I need to see high starters similar to Sale and Glasnow, with their historical past of accidents, make it by way of the season (and Glasnow’s monitor report in October is not good, with a 5.72 ERA in 45â…” innings). And let’s face it: No crew will face extra strain in October than the Dodgers. L.A.’s benefit, although: It will not be battling for a division title, whereas the Phillies and Braves could also be battling till the very finish to keep away from that all the time harmful wild-card collection.
Gonzalez: What the Dodgers clearly did not have after they received swept by the D-backs in final yr’s NLDS was dependable beginning pitching. And although rather a lot can change between now and October, what they’ve in the intervening time is the makings of a dominant employees. Glasnow and Yamamoto have pitched like the kind of guys who can carry a crew within the postseason. Walker Buehler confirmed some actually encouraging indicators in his return from a second Tommy John surgical procedure on Saturday, blanking the Reds for six innings. The electrical Bobby Miller ought to be again quickly. Clayton Kershaw, who has a 2.37 ERA over the previous two years regardless of diminishing velocity, will be a part of the rotation in some unspecified time in the future within the second half. The Dodgers must solidify their bullpen and work out the underside half of their lineup, however these are belongings they’ll simply purchase earlier than the commerce deadline. If they’ll match the dominant high half of their lineup with a dominant rotation, they’re going to be the crew to beat.
Which different NL crew is the largest menace to the Phillies, Dodgers and Braves?
Olney: In a brief collection, the Chicago Cubs, because of their pitching (assuming that they are wholesome) — and October video games at Wrigley Subject would solely foster that manufacturing. But it surely does really feel like the remainder of the NL is 1,000,000 miles behind the Huge Three proper now.
Passan: I actually need to say the Pittsburgh Pirates, as a result of Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller comprise one hell of a short-series rotation. However they’re in all probability a yr away. Realistically, the new-look Milwaukee Brewers — buoyed by a bountiful offense — and the Diamondbacks, who’ve all of the expertise to make one other run, are the likelier candidates to spoil October for one of many Huge Three.
Schoenfield: The Cubs are over .500 regardless of a number of underperformance (Dansby Swanson, Ian Happ, Christopher Morel) and harm points to date. They will want Justin Steele to search out his 2023 kind and doubtless discover a substitute for the struggling Kyle Hendricks, however Shota Imanaga has been past improbable. A playoff rotation of Steele, Imanaga, the rising Javier Assad and Jameson Taillon may very well be a bunch that makes an October run. (A few reduction arms would assist, though even mediocre bullpens can get sizzling for a month.)
Gonzalez: The San Diego Padres have but to take off largely as a result of the chilly bats of Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Ha-Seong Kim will not allow them to. Ultimately, they’re going to get going. And after they do, they’ve the expertise and depth to be the fourth-best crew within the NL. Their lineup has some good size now that Luis Arraez sits atop it. Robert Suarez has proved to be a lockdown nearer. A rotation trio of Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Dylan Stop is de facto stable. And the protection stays dynamic. The Padres are imperfect, however we all know basic supervisor A.J. Preller will likely be aggressive sufficient to plug any holes on the deadline. They will be harmful. Ultimately.
