We’re Off to the Postseason Races

At the moment is a vital day on the baseball calendar, though you won’t see or hear that talked about anyplace else. In some unspecified time in the future this night, probably round 10:30 PM Japanese, the seventh recreation of the evening will wrap up and the 2024 main league season will cross over into its second half, technically talking. Half of the two,430 video games on the common season schedule could have a winner and a loser, and nearly all of the league’s 30 groups could have performed at the least 81 video games. To me, it’s the proper time to test in on the assorted postseason races across the league. Groups have had loads of time to show who they’re, however there may be simply as a lot time remaining for these narratives to alter utterly. Let’s dive in.

To offer you a fast sense of how issues have modified since Opening Day, here’s a side-by-side comparability of the potential playoff discipline as decided by our preseason projections, the preferred picks from our preseason workers predictions, and what the playoffs would appear like if the season ended at the moment:

The present projected standings look fairly much like that last column, with two exceptions: the Astros are projected to beat out the Purple Sox for the ultimate American League Wild Card spot, and the Padres and Cardinals are projected to swap locations within the second and third Nationwide League Wild Card positions.

Eight of the present playoff groups have been seen as preseason contenders by our workers, the projections, or each: the Yankees, Orioles, Twins, Mariners, Phillies, Braves, Cardinals and Dodgers. The one row that will win you any cash on a slot machine is the NL West, the place the Dodgers stay the overwhelming favorites. Nonetheless, all eight of these groups are in a great place to make the postseason. The Yankees, Orioles, Phillies, Braves, and Dodgers have postseason odds above 92%, whereas the Mariners sit at 76.1%, the Twins at 73.9%, and the Cardinals at 45%. As for the remaining playoff berths, preseason favorites just like the ever-competitive Astros and Rays, the pennant-holding Rangers and Diamondbacks, and the new-look Giants have struggled to breach the .500 mark. In the meantime, a number of surprising contenders, just like the Guardians, Purple Sox, Royals, and Brewers, have popped as much as make issues extra attention-grabbing.

Of the three AL division races, the simplest to foretell proper now appears to be like just like the AL Central. The Guardians, who completed 76-86 final season and whose largest splash on the free agent market was Austin Hedges, have 69.0% odds to win their division, barely greater than these of the Yankees (65.7%) and Mariners (63.4%). Cleveland has an eight-game lead over Minnesota and a nine-game lead over Kansas Metropolis, and though our rest-of-season projections nonetheless see the Twins as essentially the most gifted staff within the division – they’ve outperformed the Guardians in batting worth (wRAA), baserunning worth (BsR), defensive worth (Def), and pitching worth (WAR) – an eight-game deficit is difficult to come back again from, irrespective of what number of sausages you retain within the dugout.

The races within the AL East and West ought to show to be a lot nearer, though it’s up for debate the place essentially the most compelling battle lies. New York and Baltimore are separated by a single recreation, whereas Seattle has a 4.5-game cushion over Houston. Nonetheless, our projections see the Yankees and Astros because the superior groups, so the Mariners might need simply as a lot bother defending their 4.5-game lead because the Yankees do their one-game benefit.

The AL East will even probably decide the No. 1 seed within the AL, with the winner virtually certainly avoiding the Wild Card Collection and securing dwelling discipline benefit at the least till the World Collection. Conversely, the AL West winner is at the moment on observe to be the No. 3 seed, which is way much less advantageous. That mentioned, the AL West race has the added intrigue of the Rangers, who aren’t utterly out of the combination regardless of their 37-43 report. That is largely the identical staff that gained the World Collection simply final yr, and with a number of reinforcements who ought to come off the injured checklist in the course of the second half, Texas might make a fairy story run on the division crown. The Rangers’ 4.6% division odds aren’t precisely promising, however that’s virtually precisely the place their World Collection odds stood (4.6%) getting into the 2023 postseason. Don’t overlook, there’s an enormous distinction between zero and actually something greater than zero. However extra on that in a second.

Issues are slightly extra simple within the NL, the place the percentages, the standings, and customary sense all level to the NL Central because the closest division race. The Dodgers are the most effective staff in baseball on paper, and with an 8.5-game lead within the NL West, their division odds are at 94.6%. In the meantime, the Phillies maintain an eight-game lead within the NL East, and so they have managed to persuade our rest-of-season projections that they’re roughly equal in expertise to the Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider-less Braves. The NL East rivals have 10 video games left to play in opposition to each other, so Atlanta nonetheless has management of its personal future. Nonetheless, Philadelphia’s division odds are 82.6%.

The Brewers are nonetheless the clear frontrunners within the NL Central – they’ve greater division odds (73.6%) than any staff within the AL – however it’s a lot simpler to think about Milwaukee collapsing down the stretch than both Los Angeles or Philadelphia. The Cardinals, at the moment six video games again in second place, have barely higher rest-of-season projections. Extra importantly, I’d argue St. Louis has the next ground because of a way more dependable beginning rotation. A six-game lead with half the season left to play ought to be sufficient for the Brewers to say their third division title prior to now 4 years, however another beginning pitching harm may very well be the straw that breaks the camel’s again. Funnily sufficient, whereas this is likely to be the closest division race down the stretch, it’s additionally going to be the least consequential; there’s a excessive chance the winner of the NL Central faces the runner-up within the first spherical of the NL playoffs.

In my humble opinion, the divisions will host the extra charming races over the second half of the season. Nonetheless, we’re in for some pleasure within the Wild Card races, too, given the sheer variety of groups within the combine. The Orioles and Braves are prone to declare the highest spots within the AL and NL, however after that, issues get sophisticated rapidly. 5 groups are inside 4 video games of the ultimate Wild Card slots within the AL, whereas seven groups are at the least that shut within the NL. What’s extra, there are a handful of extra groups sitting additional again that I’m not able to say are utterly out of the race.

If the season ended at the moment, the Twins would take the second AL Wild Card spot, whereas the Purple Sox would beat out the Royals for the ultimate playoff berth by the tiniest decimal level. The Twins are performing roughly how most individuals anticipated, though the emergence of the Guardians has bumped them down from division favorites to Wild Card contenders by means of little fault of their very own. In the meantime, the disappointing performances of the Astros, Rays, Rangers, and Blue Jays have made room for surprisingly aggressive groups just like the Purple Sox and Royals to enter the dialog. The Astros and Rays are shut sufficient and gifted sufficient that they’re nonetheless very a lot within the race, whereas the Rangers and Blue Jays are simply shut sufficient and simply gifted sufficient that I’m not going to write down them off utterly. I additionally really feel compelled to say the Tigers, a darkish horse candidate to contend getting into the season. They haven’t performed significantly properly this yr, however the race is shut sufficient which you can squint and say they’re nonetheless within the combine. On the very least, if we’re going to incorporate Texas and Toronto within the playoff image, we will’t ignore Detroit:

Issues are even nearer within the NL, the place seven groups are hovering round .500 and bumping up in opposition to each other within the Wild Card standings. That features contenders we anticipated, just like the Cardinals, Padres, Diamondbacks, and Giants; the marginally extra stunning Mets; and the plucky Pirates and Nationals. The Reds are 4.5 video games out, however they’re one among solely 4 groups within the Wild Card race with a optimistic run differential (+6). Lastly, the Cubs are 5 video games again, with the third-worst report within the NL. That mentioned, they have been within the combine as a lot as anybody earlier than the season started, and so they nonetheless have the expertise to get again in it.

Finally, the Nationals (3.5 video games again) are nonetheless lengthy pictures, and it’s onerous to think about the Pirates staying within the race. It’s slightly simpler to ascertain the Cubs or Reds placing collectively an enormous successful streak, however they’ve a number of groups to leapfrog earlier than they’re again within the playoff image. Nonetheless, that leaves 5 intently matched groups competing for the ultimate two spots, with the potential for one more contender or two to make issues much more attention-grabbing:

As crowded and unpredictable because the Wild Playing cards races appear, this won’t be so uncommon within the age of the 12-team playoff format. Round this time final yr, Chris Gilligan wrote in regards to the playoff race, noting how the sector was extra bunched collectively than it had been in 2022. Right here’s what that appeared like:

And right here’s how issues look this yr, for comparability:

This yr’s distribution appears to be like much more just like the one from 2022 than 2023, with the best bars on the very again and really entrance. The highest groups have separated themselves from the pack extra convincingly this yr than final, and 4 extra groups are within the bleak 0-10% playoff odds group. As Chris famous, 21 of the 30 golf equipment had between a ten% and 90% likelihood of creating the playoffs round this time final yr. At the moment, simply 14 of 30 groups sit inside that vary.

The primary half of the season tells us numerous what we have to know in regards to the playoff image. For instance, check out this side-by-side comparability of the 2023 playoff discipline in accordance with preseason projections, projections by means of video games on June 26, 2023, and precise outcomes:

Our 2023 preseason projections appropriately predicted solely three division winners and 7 playoff groups. By this date final yr, the projections appropriately recognized 5 of the six eventual playoff groups in every league.

On the similar time, there’s a cause they nonetheless play the video games within the second half. The Astros’ odds to win the AL West have been simply 22.2% this time final yr. These are worse odds than all three of the second-place golf equipment within the AL proper now. Furthermore, the Orioles’ odds within the AL East have been simply 7.6%. If they might flip these odds right into a division crown, I’m not counting out anybody this yr besides the Angels, White Sox, Athletics, Marlins, and Rockies.

Think about if I have been to let you know that once I test the climate report within the morning, I take advantage of a easy heuristic to resolve if I must take my umbrella out for the day. A 60% likelihood of rain or greater means it’s positively going to rain. A 30% likelihood of rain or decrease means it’s positively not going to rain. If that sounds foolish to you (and it ought to), then it could be simply as silly to make that assumption on the subject of playoff odds. The primary half of the 2024 season has offered us with loads of info to foretell the eventual playoff discipline, however when you don’t anticipate any surprises, you would possibly find yourself soaking moist.