Seven Traits to Contemplate When Betting the 2024 Travers Stakes

Probably the most vital races held in the US every year is the $1.25 million, Grade 1 DraftKings Travers Stakes at Saratoga Race Course. The 1 1/4-mile “Mid-Summer season Derby” frequently attracts a few of the finest 3-year-old Thoroughbreds from round the US, and the 2024 version — arising this Saturday — is not any exception.

Handicapping the Travers isn’t all the time simple, as a result of the depth of a typical area means there are a lot of viable win contenders. Thankfully, an evaluation of the latest historical past of the Travers since 2010 reveals a number of precious tendencies that can be utilized to separate the contenders and determine the most certainly winner.

The next seven tips set up one horse because the runner to beat within the 2024 Travers.

Keep away from Betting Deep Closers

The Travers doesn’t strongly favor any specific working model. Since 2010, we’ve seen a few front-running winners, together with eight winners who raced second, third, or fourth after half a mile and 5 winners who rallied from outdoors the highest 4.

That’s lots of selection, nevertheless it’s price noting deep-closing Travers winners are unusual. Just one winner since 2010 has rallied from greater than 5 lengths off the lead after half a mile, and through the identical timeframe not a single Travers winner raced in final place or next-to-last place after half a mile.

Give an edge to Triple Crown veterans

Whereas it’s not exceptional for up-and-comers to win the Travers, 9 of the final 15 winners competed in a number of legs of the Triple Crown. Horses proficient sufficient to begin within the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby Introduced by Woodford Reserve, Grade 1 Preakness Stakes, and/or the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes in the course of the spring are sometimes the runners to beat come Travers time.

Play Towards Haskell Alumni

Probably the most vital races for 3-year-olds held every summer season is the Grade 1 NYRA Bets Haskell Stakes at Monmouth Park, however the Haskell not often produces Travers winners. The final Travers champ to exit the Haskell was Eager Ice (2015), and the final horse to win each races was Level Given (2001).

New York Runners Have an Benefit

The Travers takes place in New York, and horses exiting races in New York generally nab first prize. To be particular, 11 of the final 15 Travers winners (73%) prepped with a race in New York, as did 25 of the final 42 trifecta finishers (59.5%). It’s not unusual for New York horses to run 1-2-3 within the Travers.

Certainly one of New York’s most vital Travers prep races is the Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes Introduced by Mohegan Solar at Saratoga. Six of the final 15 Travers winners exited the Jim Dandy, together with 4 horses (Keep Thirsty, Alpha, Important High quality, and Epicenter) who gained each races.

Javier Castellano is the Dominant Jockey

Corridor of Fame jockey Javier Castellano has gained extra editions of the Travers than some other rider. His seven wins have come aboard Bernardini (2006), Afleet Specific (2010), Keep Thirsty (2011), V. E. Day (2014), Eager Ice (2015), Catholic Boy (2018), and Arcangelo (2023). 4 of Castellano’s wins got here aboard longshots beginning at odds between 7-1 and 19.50-1.

Final-out Winners Are Formidable

Horses coming into off victories have the very best probability to shine within the Travers. The final eight Travers winners (and 11 of the final 15) gained their earlier begin.

Moreover, the 4 horses who defied this development completed second or third of their prep race, with three of them exiting graded stakes. In the event you’re going to attempt to beat the last-out winners angle, don’t go for a horse who completed out of the highest three of their ultimate begin earlier than the Travers.

Favor Progeny of Grade 1-winning Route Racers

Stallions who gained on the Grade 1 stage going 1 1/8 miles or farther have sired 12 of the final 15 Travers winners. The progeny of elite route racers outperform the progeny of sprinters and milers over the testing 1 1/4-mile distance of the Travers.

Conclusions

Eight horses had been entered within the 2024 Travers. The sphere is full of expertise, however a strict interpretation of the historic tendencies we’ve outlined eliminates a lot of the contenders from win consideration.

#7 Dornoch should be opposed since he exits a victory within the Haskell. #2 Sierra Leone and #6 Honor Marie are deep closers more likely to race final and next-to-last early on, disqualifying them from win consideration. #1 Thorpedo Anna and #3 Unmatched Knowledge are proficient, however their sires did not win on the Grade 1 stage at 1 1/8 miles or farther. And if you wish to again a last-out winner, horses like #4 Company Energy and #5 Batten Down (in addition to Sierra Leone and Honor Marie) aren’t for you.

This leaves #8 Fierceness because the most certainly Travers winner from a historic perspective. He has tactical velocity, he’s a veteran of the Triple Crown, he skipped the Haskell, he’s exiting a victory within the Jim Dandy in New York, and he’s a son of a stallion (Metropolis of Gentle) who gained on the Grade 1 stage at 1 1/8 miles.

Fierceness doesn’t have Javier Castellano within the saddle (Castellano is using Company Energy), however that’s a minor quibble; he’ll as a substitute be guided by Corridor of Fame jockey John Velazquez, a two-time Travers winner. In the event you like utilizing historical past as your information, then Fierceness ought to be your choose within the 2024 Travers.

Good luck along with your handicapping, and benefit from the race!