The fields for the 14 races that comprise the Breeders’ Cup World Championships actually start to come back into focus in summer time and fall. This common function will supply a snapshot profile of one of many earlier weekend’s standout stars, normally a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” Problem Sequence winner, and whether or not I’m shopping for or promoting their probabilities to win Nov. 1-2 at Del Mar. This week, repeat Brooklyn Stakes winner Subsequent prolonged his profitable streak to 5 with probably the greatest races we’ve seen within the U.S. this 12 months.
Accomplishments: Coach Doug Cowans claimed Subsequent in April 2022 at Keeneland on behalf of proprietor Michael Foster for $62,500. A claiming race, just like the aforementioned seven-furlong dash at Keeneland, is a race by which every horse entered is eligible to be bought at a set worth.
The grey or roan Not This Time gelding has rewarded his new connections with eight wins in 10 begins since he was claimed.
First Cowans tried him again on the grass and he ran nicely with one win in two tries in two-turn grass races, however the true breakthrough got here when Subsequent romped by 18 ¼ lengths in a 1 ½-mile stakes race that was washed off the turf at Delaware Park in September 2022. After that, he has competed solely at marathon distances on filth tracks. A racehorse who had 4 wins in 13 begins previous to that rating in Delaware has reworked into an nearly unbeatable drive with seven wins in subsequent eight races, all at 1 3/8 miles or longer on filth.
Competing at marathon distance races on filth is about as area of interest as you get in Thoroughbred racing in 2024, however the actuality is that Subsequent has been totally dominant, particularly throughout his present five-race profitable streak that started with a 2 ¼-length win in final 12 months’s Brooklyn.
He received the $150,000 Birdstone Stakes at 1 ¾ miles by 11 ¾ lengths in July 2023 at Saratoga after which the $200,000 Greenwood Cup Stakes by 25 lengths going 1 ½ miles on a sloppy observe at Parx Racing in September in his closing race as a 5-year-old.
Subsequent opened 2024 with an 11 ¼-length win within the 1 ½-mile Isaac Murphy Marathon Stakes Could 1 at Churchill Downs earlier than scoring a repeat win within the Brooklyn Stakes by 9 ¼ lengths July 5. His model is just to crank out one robust eighth of a mile after one other and put on the opposition into submission. As Every day Racing Type handicapper David Aragona famous (see under), his closing three eighths of a mile in :12.02, :11.88, and :11.89 soar off the web page in a 1 3/8-mile race just like the Brooklyn.
Given the Brooklyn is barely an eighth of a mile shorter than the Longines Breeders’ Cup Basic, it’s truthful to surprise if the 1 ¼-mile, $7 million race would possibly turn out to be the long-range goal.
“The issue is, the tempo goes to vary once you begin shortening issues down. I fear about that with him,” Cowans advised BloodHorse with regard to making an attempt shorter distances. “Early on he likes to be up shut, and he has some pure velocity, however he likes to get right into a rhythm as soon as he breaks out of there with that pure velocity. I don’t learn about placing him right into a :46 [half-mile]. That’s not his model. … He simply loves this, and we’re going to attempt to hold doing it with him.”
Pace Figures: Subsequent has been on an absolute heater by way of velocity figures, setting or equaling a career-best Equibase Pace Determine in every of his final 4 begins with a 104-109-109-110 through the dazzling run. His Beyer Pace Figures have additionally been terrific throughout those self same 4 races – 105-104-105-109 – with the 109 for the 2024 Brooklyn a profession high.
Wanting Forward: There most likely can be exterior stress for the connections of Subsequent to attempt races just like the Woodward Stakes, Jockey Membership Gold Cup, and Breeders’ Cup Basic (he’s nominated to the Breeders’ Cup). However so long as Cowans and proprietor Michael Foster are content material to click on off wins in marathon races, these races don’t appear to be a part of the plan for Subsequent.
“We’ll run him 4 or 5 occasions a 12 months, regardless of the marathon races are. Simply hold doing it with him and hope he’s round for some time as a result of he’s enjoyable to be round and he’s enjoyable to look at do that,” Cowans stated.
For that cause, I’m promoting Subsequent as a Breeders’ Cup candidate although I completely purchase him as one of many two or three greatest horses within the older male division. He appears like a star, however don’t count on to see him shine on Nov. 1-2 at Del Mar.
