Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/30/24

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, of us, and welcome to a different version of my Tuesday chat!

Jay Jaffe: I’m a bit late in setting this up at present as I used to be scrambling to file a bit on Padres knuckleballer Matt Waldron that may truly run tomorrow.

Jay Jaffe: We’ll give this a couple of minutes for the queue to refill and for me to complete this structurally unsound turkey sandwich.

the one who asks the lunch query: What’s for lunch?

Jay Jaffe: My standard go-to after I make a sandwich at residence: Boar’s Head cracked pepper smoked turkey on Arnold Nation White bread with mayo, mustard (eye-watering stuff from Philippe The Authentic, residence of the French dip), sliced cucumber, and Potbelly Giardiniera (ikyky).

Yeah Nicely Hiura Towel: Jay, how lengthy til we get a actual playing scandal in MLB? i.e. one truly involving gamers betting or offering insider information?

Jay Jaffe: i stay skeptical that there’s any participant silly sufficient to do that, however then should you requested me in 2015 whether or not this nation would get as silly because it has, I wouldn’t have thought so. And but right here we’re, one pandemic, two impeachments, one tried coup and an existential risk to democracy later.

Josh: The place are you on Andy Pages? Above-average common going ahead or apprehensive in regards to the swing and miss, nonetheless?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve been pleasantly shocked thus far on condition that he’s getting back from shoulder surgical procedure, which typically tends to sap a hitter’s energy. I believe he’ll all the time have swing and miss points however like prime Chris Taylor be capable of offset that together with his energy and common offensive capacity. He’s acquired a 132 wRC+ proper now, and whereas I don’t count on him to keep up that, I believe he has a shot at being the most efficient of the Dodgers’ outfielders apart from Teoscar Hernández.

Talfred: Though Volpe has come again all the way down to earth after his scorching begin, have we seen sufficient to say with confidence that he’s a considerably higher participant than he confirmed final yr?

Jay Jaffe: I believe he’s improved a good bit, however his underlying Statcast numbers recommend it’s fairly sublte; he’s truly barreling the ball much less usually and his x-stats are fairly comparable. The place he’s actually improved is in controlling the strike zone; his swinging strike fee has dropped from 12.5% to six.5% as he’s shaved about 5 factors off his chase fee. I believe we’re due for a better take a look at him quickly.

BLEES: Edwin Diaz throwing a USDA Licensed Meatball final night time was simply what the physician ordered for this Cubs offense. If they will cling above .500 till Belli and Suzuki are again are they the group to beat within the NLC?

Jay Jaffe: It’s a protracted season and no person goes to run away with the NL Central. The Cubs’ lineup has a ton of gamers who aren’t producing, and their run prevention is nothing particular. I do suppose they need to be happy with Shota Imanaga’s first month, and likewise Michael Busch.

Travis: Is it time to be involved about Acuna but? He seems to be rooooough and the numbers again it up

Jay Jaffe: I’d be just a little involved given how dramatically his numbers have eroded — strikeout fee greater than doubled,  not hitting the ball as laborious (xSLG down about 280 factors!). undecided what’s occurring however this simply proves that Mookie Betts ought to have been the NL MVP final yr .

Matt VW: Fascinated by your article on beneath alternative stage vets, Xander Bogaerts is off to a fairly bumpy begin too. He’s not that outdated, however is at a second in his profession the place we’d infer the beginning of a decline section for a center infielder. Is that this extra of an “it’s April” factor, or do the underlying date point out some trigger for greater than standard concern?

Jay Jaffe: His numbers are unhealthy however I’m not terribly involved but. His xBA and xSLG are similar to each 2022 and ’23, however he simply hasn’t gotten his cash’s value. I do marvel if the place change is having an impression on his offense.

Travis: I imply, baseball gamers aren’t any smarter than some other athletes and also you simply had a scandal within the NBA, and a number of playing suspensions within the NFL

Jay Jaffe: You’re proper, although I do suppose that MLB rightfully making an instance of Pete Rose by banning him for all times looms giant. And hey, perhaps the NBA’s lifetime ban of Jontay Porter will resonate throughout sports activities and supply a cautionary story of what’s at stake.

Underperforming Vets: What do you consider Arozarena and Bogaerts? Each have been brutal to begin the yr and we’re over the 100 PAs mark.

Jay Jaffe: Arozarena was in yesterday’s piece linked above. He’s been attempting to make use of the entire subject extra, however it’s costing him some productiveness.

Rick: You talked about Castellanos in your beneath alternative article and he does look horrible. Swinging at every part off the plate. Seems like Baez chasing. Not that way back he was a very good hitter. Do you suppose he finally turns it round or completely cooked?

Jay Jaffe: When you take a look at Castellanos’ final 5 seasons, he’s netted 3.6 WAR, which implies that within the 4 years apart from 2021, he’s at alternative stage because of his protection and barely beneath league-average offense. He’s simply not an excellent ballplayer today. He’s solely 32 so I wouldn’t rely him out completely, however I think he’s acquired changes to make if he’s going to be productive once more.

MikeD: Aaron Decide is on tempo to hit into 48 DPs, which might shatter the MLB report, and has a BABiP 50 pts. beneath his profession common. Trigger for concern, that means the primary indicators of age regression, or only a sluggish begin?

Jay Jaffe: I wrote about Decide final week (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-look-at-aaron-judges-season-opening-slum…), and since then he’s hit .333/.448/.708 with three homers, so sure, it’s fairly clear that I fastened him.

Realistically, he’s by no means going to provide like 2022 once more, and his swing requires a good bit of upkeep however I hardly suppose we’ve seen the final of him as an offensive pressure.

v2micca: It’s early, however final nights Braves Mariners sport must be frontrunner for Pitching duel of the season.

Jay Jaffe: I needed to interrupt writing about Waldron to verify in on that sport in case at the least one of many no-hit bids acquired extra critical. I solely actually noticed its denouement, alas, however the graphic the Root Sports activities broadcast confirmed simply earlier than the Mariners acquired their first hit was attention-grabbing:

Jay Jaffe:

Anon21: The balls are deader. (37 PA/HR this yr, 33 PA/HR final yr over the identical interval.) Might this be disproportionately hurting groups just like the Braves whose strategy was optimized for the livelier ball? Simply attempting to know why Acuña, Riley, and Olson are all doing poorly and seemingly getting worse.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose that groups actually plan their development across the liveliness of the ball, which we’ve seen can change from yr to yr. Considerably on the be aware of the ball, I shall be taking a look on the early-season residence run scenario later this week.

Sodo Mojo: The Mariner’s offense has been pretty woeful thus far this yr.  Do you suppose Garver, Raley, and Polanco will rebound or are the Mariners going to need to do some important purchasing on the deadline?

Jay Jaffe: The entire offense has principally been unhealthy; even Julio Rodríguez has an 88 wRC+ proper now. I strongly suspect that no matter whether or not these specific hitters rebound, if the Mariners are contending for a playoff spot, Jerry Dipoto will do some purchasing.

M’s Fan: As soon as Woo returns, do the the M’s have the perfect rotation in baseball?

Jay Jaffe: They mission to have the second-highest WAR of any rotation for the remainder of the season, so I’d say that they’re within the working for the title of “finest”

Vance: With Vacation despatched down, what do you suppose the probabilities are that Baltimore calls up Mayo or Norby over the subsequent month or two to take Urias’s at-bats?

Jay Jaffe: Extra probably Mayo (who’s taking part in 3B) than Norby (who’s taking part in 2B) if we’re simply speaking about Urias’ taking part in time, however I wouldn’t be tremendously shocked if Holliday is again earlier than both is named up.

BLEES: Which NL group outdoors of Atlanta and the Dodgers has the perfect shot to safe a bye this yr?

Jay Jaffe: Our Playoff Odds give the Cubs and Phillies the perfect possibilities (13.4% and 12.1%) however my intestine says the latter has a greater probability. They’re the stronger ballclub of the 2 and that i simply don’t see the NL Central producing one of many league’s high two groups.

danny: is Jo Adell lastly breaking out offensively? not an excessive amount of knowledge but however xwoba trying nice and okay fee drop particularly encouraging

Jay Jaffe: Yeah, it’s not quite a lot of knowledge (59 PA, 40 BBE) however he’s swinging so much much less and making contact much more, and that’s an excellent signal.

Loopy Query: What would Sonny Grey need to do to get into the HoF? I see only a few SP from this period getting in until the requirements change. I don’t suppose he at present has any probability, however he appears to be growing old like a nice wine. If he can put up a 5 WAR seasons with STL, after which stick round as a median SP till 40, does that give him any shot?

Jay Jaffe: With Gerrit Cole out, no person’s piling up innings today, however Grey is very not piling up innings, having certified for the ERA title simply as soon as previously three years. He’s in his age-34 season and has three seasons of at the least 5.0 bWAR; I believe he’s going to wish a bunch extra earlier than he even will get talked about in HOF phrases.

AL Central Casting: I’ve learn articles suggesting particular gamers quit switch-hitting as a result of they’re notably poor from one facet. It appears to me there can be a tough studying curve to doing so, since they’d not solely be giving up the platoon benefits based mostly on physics and geometry, but in addition the truth that they’d be seeing same-side pitching for the primary time in a protracted whereas (if ever). Wouldn’t it’s extra useful to the group to simply platoon them as a lot as doable? Associated query: with the rise in specialization in baseball, will there be a time when switch-hitting is sort of extinct?

Jay Jaffe: The factor about platooning is that it doesn’t occur in a vacuum; you want the fitting roster development to drag it off, and even then it carries a value as to what you are able to do with the remainder of your bench. My intestine tells me {that a} participant who’s combating switch-hitting can in all probability adapt with out an excessive amount of bother given the low bar for enchancment, however I don’t have knowledge at hand to again that up. Can be attention-grabbing for any individual to check.

Tommy: Which divisional race are you most excited to observe by October? Apart from Dodgers in all probability working away with the NL West, the opposite 5 ought to have fairly tight races

Jay Jaffe: Most likely the AL East because it’s the one I get to see essentially the most from my NYC vantage. However it could be actually wild if the AL Central turns right into a 3 or 4 group race.

Elliott: How does Vladdy Jr. have a tough hit% of 54% and a .351 slugging%, unhealthy luck or one thing else?

Jay Jaffe: His groundball fee is above 50% and he’s pulling the ball lower than ever. Unsure what’s going on there however I can think about Blue Jays followers are tearing their hair out.

Re: Nats: With all these younger shortstops (Henderson, De La Cruz, Volpe, Abrams) what would their extension numbers be? Are all of them in Bobby Witt territory?

Anon21: I don’t imply that the Braves deliberate their strategy across the ball per se–I imply they’ve adopted a reasonably all-or-nothing strategy to hitting that’s predicated on the anticipated worth of the “all” (making good contact). If that anticipated worth has meaningfully decreased, it might go away them excessive and dry.

Jay Jaffe: They’re making nice contact — first or second within the majors in EV, barrel and hard-hit charges. However they do hit a ton of grounders (fifth in MLB), and have a middle-of-the-pack strikeout fee so I’m probably not seeing how that interprets to an all-or-nothing strategy.

Alex Anthopoulos:

If you're ducking since you vehemently acknowledged that Betts shoud have been the MVP, then you already know that one thing will not be proper in it. Care to broaden?

Jay Jaffe: Simply having just a little enjoyable winding humorless Braves followers up after getting an limitless quantity of shit from them for suggesting that — gasp — Betts could be worthy of the award final yr.

Dilly Canine: Suppose PCA finally ends up going again down, or if he hits he sticks?

Jay Jaffe: I believe he may very well be up and down for at the least the primary half of the season however it does rely on how rapidly Bellinger returns and the extent to which Crow-Armstrong hits. In the event that they’re in a race late within the season, it’s clear that they worth his pace and protection sufficient to maintain him round even when it’s simply as a bench piece.

Johnny: Is NOLAN JONES cooked – or is his horrible begin on account of his harm?

Jay Jaffe: is a 25-year-old man who had a 135 wRC+ final yr and simply went on the IL for a again harm cooked? Is that what you’re asking?

Joey Doughnuts: Has there ever been a place participant in MLB historical past with as steep of an increase and subsequent fall as Kris Bryant? I really feel like individuals don’t speak about this practically sufficient.

Jay Jaffe: MVP in his age-24 season, alternative level-ish from his age-30 onward? I’m struggling to think about a parallel fairly as dramatic, although I’ll be aware that Jeff Burroughs was an MVP at 23 after which totaled simply 3.2 WAR from ages 28-34.

André René Roussimoff: Are the Daulton Varsho’s offensive enhancements for actual? Thanks, Jay.

Jay Jaffe: Colour me skeptical at the least for the second. Whereas he’s change into extra selective on the plate, he’s not hitting the ball laborious in any respect, and each his xBA and xSLG are down about 40 factors from final yr, after they kind of mirrored his precise manufacturing.

Jay Jaffe: Sizemore was a star however not an MVP and champion; Bryant had a lot additional to fall.

Tim: I actually just like the Mets metropolis join however others have ripped them. What say you?

Jay Jaffe: I preferred the jerseys OK however I believe they appear ridiculous with the white pants.

Re: Kris Bryant: Cody Bellinger?

Jay Jaffe: We’re not there but — or reasonably, he does appear to have pulled out of his nosedive — however like Bryant, he does have the MVP/champion combo heights to fall from.

Re: Sonny Grey: I agree in the meanwhile Grey doesn’t have the numbers, however extra of a hopeful. He’s ninth on the lively pitcher bWAR checklist wtih some certain fireplace HOF above him however retiring quickly. Cole, Nola, and Wheeler are the one others from this era to look to actually have a probability with good growing old. I don’t suppose we are going to see many pitchers placing up 50 WAR careers and it appears somebody hitting that mark might probably change into the HoF standards if you would like any pitchers in.

Jay Jaffe: Quick reply to a protracted subject: I believe we’re extra more likely to expertise a drought in pitchers being elected than within the requirements being lowered dramatically.

Jay Jaffe: OK of us, that’s sufficient out of me for at present. Simply bear in mind: everyone who’s struggling proper now could be both washed up, cooked, or simply completely by. Panic now, and once more tomorrow!

Jay Jaffe: I child, I child. Thanks for stopping by, and stay calm. We’ll do that once more quickly…